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This time window has many landmark events. For example, the 12th Five-Year Plan is about to be implemented. When the country launches the 13th Five-Year Plan, the “One Belt, One Road†national strategy will launch the next round of “going out†grand blueprint. When the AIIB successfully built financial support for infrastructure construction in the Asian region; the State Council launched a high-profile “Made in China 2025†strategy, intelligent manufacturing became the next policy-oriented cusp industry; and a new generation of information technology and manufacturing deep integration It is causing a far-reaching industrial transformation; China’s economic development has entered a new normal, and macroeconomic operations are undergoing trials in the process of continuing to slow down. The time points of the above-mentioned series of important opportunities and challenges have formed the background of the transformation and upgrading of China's machine tool industry and the exploration from the big to the strong. At this time, the observation and judgment will directly influence the choice of the future road and the fate of the industry. It is also a special period in which the mind is active, the discussion is prosperous, and the opinions are different.
To this end, the reporter of the Ministry of Media of China Machine Tool Industry Association conducted an exclusive interview with Mr. Chen Huiren, executive vice president and secretary general of China Machine Tool Industry Association, and asked him to sort out and analyze the realities and contradictions of the current Chinese machine tool industry.
First: situation judgment
Reporter from the Ministry of Media: China's economic growth rate has bid farewell to the high-speed growth of about 10% per annum in the past 10 years since the second half of 2011, and has dropped back to an annual growth rate of around 7%. The macro has shown a shift from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth. New normal. During this period, the total demand for domestic machine tool tools experienced a continuous decline process. The industry has encountered many difficulties. What are the specific situations and situations?
Chen Huiren: As far as the industry as a whole is concerned, the downturn of China's machine tool and tool manufacturing industry began in the second half of 2011 and has been in full for four years. The direct cause of the industry downturn is that the domestic machine tool consumer market has undergone significant and continuous changes, and the basic characteristics of market changes are manifested in two aspects: on the one hand, a significant reduction in the total demand, and on the other hand, a significant upgrade in the demand structure. .
According to the statistics of the association, compared with the beginning of the downturn in 2011, the total consumption of the domestic machine tool market in 2014 decreased by 18.6%. It must be pointed out that the decline in the total market demand is structural, that is, the decline in the demand for low-end general-purpose products is the most prominent, which is a significant decline, and even the so-called "cliff-style" decline can not be overemphasized. The market for this type of product is precisely the main support for China's machine tool industry in the past to achieve rapid growth. We have long occupied an absolutely dominant market share in this market segment, so the sharp drop in demand in this category has brought great impact to most domestic machine tool manufacturers. Therefore, in the past four years, industry companies have been under tremendous downward pressure, and from the current situation, this downward pressure is still further increasing.
According to the statistics of the Association's key contact network, in the first half of this year, new orders for metal processing machine tools decreased by 6.3% year-on-year, main business revenue decreased by 6.4%, machine tool output decreased by 15.3%, and total profit decreased by 29.9%. The total profit of the machine tool sector decreased by 207.1% year-on-year. In the first half of this year, the loss-making enterprises in the whole industry accounted for 40% (39.4%), of which the loss of enterprises in the field of metal cutting machine tools is close to half (48.6%). It can be seen that in the first half of the year, except for the export indicators (up 2.3% year-on-year), all of them showed a downward trend. Under the pressure of continuous downward movement, some industrial enterprises have difficulties in operation, and a few enterprises have been in a state of semi-discontinuation or even production suspension.
At the same time, it must be pointed out that the downward pressure continues to increase and the operation is difficult, and it cannot represent the overall picture of the current situation of the industry. To comprehensively and accurately judge the situation of the industry, we must observe and analyze from multiple angles and levels. At the just-concluded meeting of the chairman of the association, I represent the association to make four basic judgments on the status quo of the industry, and for this year and next year. The industry trend has made four basic estimates.
The basic judgment of the status quo is: first: the main body of the industry is still in the downside, and the downward pressure is further increased; second: the basic characteristics of the market changes with significantly reduced demand and significantly improved demand structure; third: many aspects The differentiation of industry structure began to appear; Fourth: positive changes in the process of industrial transformation adjustment.
The basic estimate for this year and next is that, first, the basic characteristics and trends of China's machine tool market will be more obvious; second, the industry will also bear greater downward pressure; third, the market structure, corporate competition Structural differentiation will be further revealed; fourth, the positive actions of the government and enterprises will effectively hedge downward pressure.
Reporter from the Ministry of Media: After 10 years of rapid growth, the machine tool industry has fallen into a downward trend of four years of continuous decline. It stands to reason that it is still in the acceptable upper and lower fluctuation range, but many of us have already felt that we can't stand it, and we are not prepared for it, so everyone is very concerned about where it is. Because the bottom will pick up, the situation will not be worse. But after all, this is a sentimental expression and reaction. What is the underlying cause of these difficulties and even the crisis?
Chen Huiren: Our understanding of the current difficult situation should be rational and objective. The word "crisis" is used to describe a bit too much, and the adjustment is more appropriate. Because this is an inevitable stage determined by the laws of economic development, adjustments are normal and even necessary from a long-term perspective. The logic of historical development will not be a straight line, and economic growth will also be up and down.
Compared with developed countries, the development of China's machine tool industry is still in its infancy. It is impossible for any machine tool industry in developed countries to have so many machine tool manufacturers in our industry. In Japan, for example, the number of Japanese machine tool factories has decreased by half compared with 20 or 30 years ago. According to this development trend, Chinese machine tool enterprises will undergo a round of rigorous survival of the fittest in structural adjustment. In fact, this adjustment is taking place as the situation changes.
As in the beginning of the adjustment in October 2011, we made a judgment at the expansion meeting of the Standing Committee of the Machine Tool Association: the industry has begun to enter a new stage of historical development, and one of the basic characteristics of this stage is expected to be the differentiation and restructuring of enterprises. . From the historical point of view, or from the perspective of development, such a process of elimination is going to be experienced sooner or later, and it will not be able to survive and will not be comfortable. The current economic environment change is an external driving force, and the industrial structure is deeply adjusted under its role.
There are many problems and difficulties in adjustment, and we must look at the essence through phenomena. On the surface, it is a serious shortage of demand. In fact, the structural contradiction of low-end surplus and high-end deficiency is difficult to solve. It is a contradiction between the rapid upgrading of the domestic market demand structure and the inability of the machine tool industry to adapt and meet this demand. Looking at this structural issue now is still the main contradiction.
The reason for the structural defects is that in the past 10 years, especially in the last 10 years, the extensive economic development mode has pursued the priority of quantity expansion. Such a large economic environment has a great impact on our industry, simply pursuing quantity and neglecting qualitative development. Second, the strategic convergence of machine tool enterprises over the years has caused the enterprises to pursue the strategy of “bigger and stronger†regardless of their size. The consequence of strategic convergence is the homogenization competition of low-end products. Third, the development of the manufacturing industry has been unhealthy for many years. The outstanding feature is that it is impetuous. If it does not stand still, it will not stabilize, and it will be a hot day. For example, when you see heavy-duty machine tools selling well, you will be able to carry out heavy-duty machines, and the heavy-duty machine tools will soon be oversupplied.
Second: problem analysis
Reporter from the Ministry of Media: China's machine tool industry has indeed swallowed the bitter fruit of structural defects, and now the external economic environment is also forced to adjust and upgrade. In fact, the pain of "high-end failure, low-end melee" has long been a dysentery in the industry. Everyone does not know or work hard, but why is it defeated and defeated?
Chen Huiren: As pointed out at the expansion meeting of the Association’s executive director at the end of 2011, “it is undeniable that the significant changes in the market environment are the direct cause of the current difficult situation in the industry, but we must also clearly understand that in the past 10 years in the industry. In the process of rapid development, due to the driving and entanglement of the economic development environment and the staged development of the industry, the transformation of development mode has not received the attention it deserves. Compared with the great achievements of scale growth, the structural adjustment is obviously lagging behind. This is another important reason that cannot be avoided. It can also be said to be a more fundamental reason.
The reality of the situation after 4 years, at least confirmed the judgment at that time from two aspects. One aspect is that the structural imbalance of the external environment is becoming more and more serious. Due to the slow transition of development mode, the prominent contradictions and problems of the macro-economy are concentrated in the realization of economic resources, and the real cold and heat of economic signs. On the other hand, many companies are affected by the excessive expansion of the previous scale, overcapacity, and even worse the benefits. This is obviously the result of the structural adjustment lag.
It can be seen that the transformation of the economic development mode and the adjustment and upgrading of the corporate structure are fundamental issues. The former has external and objective attributes that are not transferred by our will. The latter has internal, subjective attributes that can be changed through our efforts. This is the main task facing the industry in the new historical development stage.
Reporter from the Ministry of Media: Now that we are in deep trouble, adjustment and upgrading have become a road in Huashan. How can we turn passive into initiative?
Chen Huiren: China's machine tool industry has reached a critical period of climbing over the ridge and rolling stones up the mountain. Whether it can come out in this round of harsh adjustment depends on the investment of enterprise resources. The investment of enterprise resources depends on the entrepreneurs, and the first is the entrepreneurs' understanding of the problems and the way out. I would like to talk about this issue personally.
(1) About hard and soft questions. Technical equipment, marketing methods, competitive conditions, excellent talents, etc., are hard problems, and spending money can be solved; and the corporate system, culture, mechanism, and atmosphere are soft problems that cannot be solved by spending money. It can be seen that the soft problem is the main problem of enterprise transformation and upgrading, and it is the main aspect of contradiction. It takes time and energy to solve it. Therefore, solving soft problems is a hard task.
(2) About homogenization and differentiation. Usually we think that upgrading from low-end products to high-end products is the path to survival and development. In fact, the key issue does not stop there. Compared with the low-end, homogenization is the gap between us and the international advanced and more essential. Because low-end products can also rely on differentiation to obtain living space, and differentiated survival is a healthy industrial ecology. Even if you are doing high-end products, you should avoid rushing and blindly following the trend.
(3) About breadth and depth. The market strategy of thousands of mountains and waters and thousands of households is to make a fuss about the breadth. And personalized customization, providing users with a full set of solutions, etc., is working hard in the market. At present, some enterprises have been properly contracted on the surface, because only the breadth does not help the enterprise's upgrade, or the old road of expansion.
(4) Subversive innovation and continuous improvement. In fact, disruptive innovation is a high-level innovation that has never been seen in a hundred years. Compared to disruptive innovation, continuous improvement may be more effective in industries such as manufacturing that require solid basic skills. Some 100-year-old companies in Europe and Japan are talking about improvement and accumulation, and the continuous improvement of winning and winning is the soul of these excellent manufacturing companies. And we often say that overtaking in corners, like to do it in one battle, like "subversion", the result is that many people have made a meal, but the speed is not up.
(5) From “can do†to “do itâ€. To be a high-end product, one must do it; the second is to do it well. “Being able to do†is important, and “doing it†is especially difficult. It is necessary to put more energy into the “good†link. Instead of Xiongzizi glutinous rice, if it is satisfied with the display of scientific research results, it will no longer work hard to "do it well."
Third: policy inquiry
Reporter from the Ministry of Media: After discussing the external environment and causes of the development of the industry, as well as the clarification issues that need to be clarified for internal changes, I would like to hear your views on industrial policies.
Chen Huiren: The industrial policy on the machine tool industry is worth discussing. Although the state has always attached great importance to the development of the CNC machine tool industry, governments at all levels have given strong support to the development of the CNC machine tool industry over the years, but today, China's CNC machine tool industry still has a large comprehensive gap compared with developed countries, especially It is a huge gap between high-end products and core technologies. The high-end machine tool equipment required by many key industries in the country is still heavily dependent on imports. The reasons for this passive situation are many and require the industry itself to continue to make comprehensive efforts, but the appropriate adjustment of the national industrial policy thinking is also very necessary.
As we all know, in China, the CNC machine tool industry has long been a fully competitive industry. The CNC machine tool market is also a completely open market. Even the import of many high-end products has given preferential tax reduction and exemption policies. It must be acknowledged that the above policy environment has played a positive role in promoting the development of China's CNC machine tool industry, expanding communication, actively integrating into global industrial cooperation and competition, and developing and progressing in cooperation and competition, but at the same time it has produced a considerable degree of negative effects. The most prominent of these is the suppression of the progress and development of domestic high-end CNC machine tools to a considerable extent.
In addition to a few varieties of a few companies, we still have a huge gap with developed countries in terms of high-end products and core technologies. Therefore, we cannot compete with foreign strong players in a fully market-oriented environment. In the face of the huge advantages of foreign strong players, we are at home. The market is almost overwhelmed.
Therefore, we believe that in the high-end products and core technologies, it is not appropriate to adopt a fully market-oriented policy at the current stage. The state should give appropriate industrial protection to alleviate the market pressure of domestic high-end products and core technologies, so that they are appropriate. The protection gradually forms the ability to participate in full market competition.
At the same time, we also believe that in the past, national policies focused on financial subsidies, while Western developed countries took longer to provide support through taxation. In this regard, it is necessary for my Government to consider appropriate reference. At present, the association is preparing the "China Machine Tool 2020" plan, the main purpose of which is to provide reference for enterprises to formulate the "13th Five-Year Plan"; the second is to make suggestions for the government to formulate industrial policies. One of the important ones is to recommend appropriate incentives such as reducing VAT. (written: Yang Qing, Yan Xiaoyan, Lan Haixia)
Chen Huiren: The understanding of the current difficult situation should be rational and objective
Abstract Now both the Chinese machine tool industry and the Chinese manufacturing industry are in a time window, which is both an end and an expectation. It is both a sensitive and critical time point and an opportunity to summarize the past and think about the future. This time window has many iconic events,...
Now both China's machine tool industry and China's manufacturing industry are in a time window, which is both an end and an expectation to start; it is both a sensitive and critical point in time, and an opportunity to summarize the past and think about the future.