But does the risk not exist? Or is the undercurrent under the surge of tides surging at any time? What should be paid attention to in later operations?

First come the dominant factor in this wave up:

The recent market main line still adjusts around the three major aspects of Sino-US trade war, environmental protection and limited production, and domestic macro-policies. The market performance is frequent shocks, but the overall increase is more or less, and all the way to break the previous high, it can be seen that the market bullish factors still occupy The upper hand.

First of all, what is the impact of the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas in the autumn and winter of 2018-2019 on the comprehensive action plan for air pollution control (draft for comments)”?

Judging from the current situation, the program implements partial peak production in the steel, coking and foundry industries. In key cities such as Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Xingtai and Anyang, the production capacity in the heating season is limited to 50%; the proportion of production in other cities is not less than 30%, and the provincial government plans to formulate implementation plans; Metering, supporting sintering, coke oven and other equipment synchronous stop production, using the actual electricity consumption of the enterprise to verify. Compared with last year, the number of cities with limited production has increased. Tianjin and Xingtai have been added to key cities with a capacity limit of 50%. The second is to limit the production ratio, and the production standard is limited, except for maintaining the production capacity of blast furnaces. Supporting sintering, coke oven and other equipment to meet the requirements of synchronous shutdown; increase the environmental protection standards to avoid false peaks, organized emissions, unorganized emissions and bulk materials and product transportation, etc., which can meet the ultra-low emission requirements, but can not be wrong, but orange and During the above-mentioned heavy pollution weather warning period, it is still required to limit production by 50%. Only some production processes and links that meet the ultra-low emission requirements are still included in the peak production implementation plan, and differentiated peaks are implemented according to the emission performance level. Overall, it has risen one level more than last year!

In addition, Hebei Xingtai issued a pollution reduction plan, which further strengthened air pollution control measures from the aspects of enterprise restrictions, enterprise restrictions, and motor vehicle restrictions. Among them: Since August 15th, a coke oven furnace in Xinggang has been discontinued; a 198-square-meter sintering machine and a 180-square-meter sintering machine have one production; the blast furnace process only retains the normal production of 1,050 cubic meters of blast furnace. Coking enterprises: Since August 15, Hebei Zhongyang Xuyang Coking 1#, 2#, 3# coke ovens have been discontinued; Jianye (Hebei) Coking 1# and 2# coke ovens have been discontinued. Limit the motor vehicle.

At the same time, the Jiangxi Provincial Environmental Protection Department conducted special inspections in Pingxiang. Jiangxi Pingan Company normally produced 7 blast furnaces. On August 6th, except for Anyuan 1080 cubic blast furnace and Pingxiang a 450 cubic blast furnace, the remaining five will be in turn overhauled. By then, production will shrink by about half.

Guangxi also officially issued the “Three-Year Combat Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control (2018-2020)”, and clearly adopted a number of measures. By 2020, the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in each city will be 15% lower than that in 2015. The ratio of days with good air quality should reach 91.5%; the emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides should be 13% lower than that of 2015. To speed up the adjustment of the energy structure, in 2020, Guangxi's coal accounted for less than 47% of the primary energy consumption ratio.

The market is rumored that the power load in North China is too heavy, and various regions such as Hebei and Shandong are subject to phased power cuts (including some construction sites). At present, some steel companies have been notified, except for some steel mills with self-generating capacity. Most of them were arranged for peak production at night. It is reported that the power cut will last for 7-10 days, which will affect the 30% capacity of rolling mills.

It can be seen that environmental protection upgrades and power supply and production restrictions on the market are expected to offset the negative impact of the Sino-US trade war. At the same time, as the hot rainy season draws to a close, expectations of demand increases are also rising. All of the above have a superposition effect, and even in the case of the persistence of fear of high psychology, the spot is still a willful one.

What needs to be focused on is the market accumulation. Judging from the inventory data of recent research, the steel social inventories have risen, the factory warehouse is still in a downward channel, and the steel mills are willing to pay a good price. However, the inventory "one liter and one drop" also shows that the digestive strength from the demand side market is slightly weakened, but the limited production impact comes from the pressure on the supply end of the steel mill is not large, with the weakening of the seasonal off-season, the demand will also It will rise accordingly. Therefore, there is no particularly large impact on supply and demand in the short term. At present, the updated inventory data is required to be guided.

But the impact of the Sino-US trade war can not be ignored, this is the biggest uncertainty. Although the United States has released the negotiating signal, it is not uncommon for Trump to go back and forth, and the future is still a big constraint. After the steel market has risen in four months, the market's accumulated fear of high sentiment has made the market more sensitive. Especially after the snail broke through 4,200 yuan, this sentiment is more obvious, and the market continues to increase its space. At the same time, downstream end users have a resistance to the current high price, and high shipments are blocked. In the event of bad news, the market is likely to fall back at any time.

However, the current long and short staggered, even if there is an adjustment, the magnitude may be limited. The overall market performance is likely to be high and volatile.

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