Cup Mask,Cup Face Mask,Cup Kn95 Mask With Valve,Kn95 Approved Cup Face Mask Ningbo Autrends Prevention Products Co., Ltd , https://www.autrendsafety.com
"Tianshi personnel day reminder, the winter solstice Yang Shengchun came again." Since March, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar has risen steadily, and the "breaking 7" consensus at the beginning of the year has gradually disappeared. So, is this stability a short-lived accident, or is it a medium- and long-term trend? We believe that the three key pillars of the stability of the RMB exchange rate have quietly formed, laying the foundation for the long-term trend to stabilize.
From the internal factors, the expected management at the beginning of this year not only effectively broke the devaluation consensus, but also formed a long-term restraint on the depreciation of the depreciation; from the external perspective, due to the end of the "Trump market" of the US dollar, the RMB exchange rate operation situation improved, and the exchange rate policy got rid of From a fundamental point of view, the "8·11" exchange rate reform has so far, the release of the RMB effective exchange rate overvaluation pressure has been completed in stages, and the introduction of the countercyclical factor in the formation mechanism of the RMB middle price is just the right time.
With the above pillars, after experiencing the urgency of the fourth quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017, the RMB exchange rate has come out of a painful winter and returns to the long-term track of stable operation. In view of this, we judge that the renminbi will become a "new normal", and the relatively comfortable exchange rate operation is expected to continue for a long time, thereby consolidating and promoting the internationalization of the renminbi.
Expected management to defeat the devaluation in October 2016, the irrational depreciation of the renminbi is expected to become a demons, triggering a rapid depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar for several months, and has created heavy pressure on capital outflows. At the beginning of 2017, Chinese regulators seized key opportunities and broke the depreciation consensus with the expected management of diversification. It formed a continuous suppression of the depreciation and created a suitable market atmosphere for the RMB exchange rate to stabilize.
From December 2016 to January 2017, the market formed a consensus on the excessive “concentration of RMBâ€, so a small reversal force at the margin could trigger a chain effect. At the same time, the liquidity of the overseas RMB market was extremely tight, and the cost of shorting the RMB was greatly increased, which aggravated the market reaction behind the trend disk. Seizing this opportunity, Chinese regulators have intensively introduced a series of measures to enhance the expected management of the RMB. Affected by this, in January 2017, the RMB exchange rate rebounded strongly. The onshore and offshore prices appreciated by 715 and 1187 basis points in the month, triggering the market to step on the market and defeating the RMB depreciation.
This round of expected management not only gave birth to the renminbi's opening, but also formed long-term suppression of irrational devaluation expectations. Since February 2017, the onshore and offshore exchange rates of the RMB against the US dollar have not only stabilized, but the price difference between the two has been positive from 2016 to negative and has been narrowed. This shows that the original RMB depreciation consensus has basically been resolved, and market expectations are returning to rationality. As market expectations improve, the pressure on capital outflows has also eased significantly. Since January 2017, the bank's settlement of foreign exchange settlement has gradually narrowed, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves has rebounded for three consecutive months after bottoming out.
The exchange rate operating scenario has ushered in a transition since March, the US dollar index has continued to fall, and the RMB exchange rate has shifted from scenario C to scenario B. Thanks to this, the two bottom lines of the RMB exchange rate policy are no longer under pressure at the same time, and the dilemma of the central bank's policy choices has gradually disappeared, thus providing continuous guarantee for the stable operation of the RMB exchange rate.
As we pointed out earlier, after the “8·11†exchange rate reform, the short-term operation of the RMB exchange rate can be divided into scenario A, scenario B and scenario C (see figure). Since October 2016, the situation C has not retreated. The US dollar index continued to rise, and the two bottom lines of the RMB exchange rate policy were simultaneously under pressure, causing the central bank to fall into a painful dilemma: Tolerating the rapid depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar may lead to an unexpected loss of control. Strengthening the strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar will amplify the extent to which the RMB deviates from the long-term equilibrium. . This dilemma forced the exchange rate policy to carry out a complex dynamic balance, which is the key cause of the cold winter of the RMB exchange rate. Since March, the US dollar index has descended from the high point of 102.1 to around 97, pushing the situation C to change to scenario B. The long and tormented policy dilemma is over.
As the dust of the French election was settled, the risk appetite in the European market was boosted, and the exchange rate of the euro and the British pound against the US dollar bottomed out. On the other hand, Trump's "leakage door" triggered a continuous crisis of trust, and the delay of large-scale fiscal stimulus will suppress the dollar's trend for a long time. Therefore, the US dollar index will continue to decline, and will remain at a lower level. The RMB exchange rate will also be located in Scenario B and Scenario A for a long time. Under scenario B, as the US dollar index is lower, it is only necessary to maintain the phased stability of the renminbi against the US dollar, so as to slow down the overvaluation pressure of the effective exchange rate of the renminbi. Under scenario A, since the US dollar index is stable at a non-absolute high, the gradual and orderly depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar can achieve a sustained release of the RMB effective exchange rate overvaluation pressure. In view of this, in the next few months, the two bottom lines of the exchange rate policy will remain stable, the central bank's decision-making will get rid of the dilemma, and the RMB exchange rate operation will usher in a long-term and pleasant phase.
Overestimating the release of pressure is nearing the end The renminbi currency is the currency map of China's economic fundamentals. The equilibrium exchange rate based on fundamentals is the core characterization of the bottom line. Drawing on relevant academic research, we constructed an econometric model based on BEER theory to measure the RMB equilibrium exchange rate. The calculation results show that since the "8·11" exchange rate reform, the release of the RMB effective exchange rate overvaluation pressure has been completed in stages, and the RMB fundamentals will strongly support the stable operation of the exchange rate:
First, the “8·11†exchange rate reform effectively released the overestimated pressure. During the period from the third quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2015, the real effective exchange rate of the RMB was higher than the equilibrium exchange rate for a long time, and the difference between the two was gradually expanded, indicating that the overvaluation of the effective exchange rate of the RMB became increasingly serious at this stage. During the period from the third quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2016, the difference between the real effective exchange rate of the RMB and the equilibrium exchange rate gradually narrowed until it almost disappeared. This shows that after the “8·11†exchange rate reform, the two-way floating and flexible exchange rate operation mechanism based on market supply and demand has achieved initial results. Under this mechanism, the phased depreciation of the renminbi effectively relieved the overestimation pressure and promoted the internal and external equilibrium of the Chinese economy.
Second, the devaluation of the devil has caused the RMB exchange rate to overshoot. In October 2016, the IMF lowered the forecast of economic growth in the United States and developed countries in the same year, with a drop of 0.6 and 0.2 percentage points respectively, while maintaining affirmation of China's economic growth. Thanks to the comparative advantage of economic fundamentals, the RMB equilibrium exchange rate showed a strong rebound in the fourth quarter of 2016. However, the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi during the same period was significantly lower than the equilibrium exchange rate, and the degree of deviation between the two increased to -1.5%, which formed a serious undervaluation of the renminbi. According to this, the rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, which began in October 2016, and the sudden increase in capital outflow pressures are all overstated by the irrational market dominated by the devaluation, which seriously deviates from the objective economic reality.
Third, the overestimation of pressure release has been phased out. In the first quarter of 2017, the real effective exchange rate of the RMB and the equilibrium exchange rate were highly close, and the former was only 0.2% lower than the latter. It can be verified that the expected management at the beginning of the year effectively suppressed the devaluation and quickly corrected the irrational undervaluation of the renminbi. At the same time, the fact that the real effective exchange rate is slightly lower than the equilibrium exchange rate also reasonably explains the steady increase of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar since April 2017. At this point, the pressure of overvaluation of the RMB accumulated before the “8·11†exchange rate reform is nearing full release. Looking forward to the future, with the changes in China's economic fundamentals and the global economic situation, the relative real and negative exchange rate of the RMB and the relative exchange rate will continue to evolve, leading to two-way fluctuations in the value of the renminbi, but the material basis for long-term and large devaluation does not exist. Exchange rate stability has been consolidated.
Fourth, the introduction of the countercyclical factor is just the right time. From the perspective of policy costs, as the current exchange rate operation stabilizes and the overestimation of pressure is released, the introduction of a countercyclical factor in the formation mechanism of the RMB middle price can achieve a smooth and orderly mechanism adjustment and avoid a drastic institutional impact on the market. . Judging from the policy benefits, after the long adjustment of the “8·11†exchange rate reform, the effective exchange rate of the RMB has basically matched the equilibrium exchange rate. At this time, the introduction of the counter-cyclic factor can prevent the procyclical fluctuations from re-expanding the currency value miscalculation, so that the effective exchange rate and The deviation of the equilibrium exchange rate is maintained within a reasonable range. Therefore, this measure is not only expected to enhance the institutional basis of the stability of the RMB exchange rate, but will further promote the exchange rate to adjust the functional standard of the internal and external equilibrium of the Chinese economy.
(The author is chief economist, research director and managing director of ICBC International)
The stability of the RMB exchange rate has become the new normal expectation management to defeat the depreciation
Abstract [ Based on relevant academic research, we constructed an econometric model based on BEER theory and measured the RMB equilibrium exchange rate. The calculation results show that the "8·11" exchange rate reform so far, the effective exchange rate of the RMB overestimates the pressure...
[Based on relevant academic research, we constructed an econometric model based on BEER theory and measured the RMB equilibrium exchange rate. The calculation results show that since the "8·11" exchange rate reform, the release of the RMB effective exchange rate overvaluation pressure has been completed in stages, and the RMB fundamentals will strongly support the stable operation of the exchange rate]