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Steel industry investment strategy: transfer of diamonds and other fields
The steel industry remains a challenging sector, with difficulties in reducing overcapacity and transforming cost pricing mechanisms. In 2013, the investment strategy centered around waiting for the next economic cycle. Luo Baihui, a senior analyst at Jinmo Steel Network, expressed cautious optimism regarding certain sub-sectors such as high-end pipes, special steel, and diamond materials, while remaining skeptical about Pugang and iron ore.
From the perspective of market analysis over the past six months, the core logic behind the investment approach has proven accurate. Looking ahead, the focus should remain on the fine-molecular industries—those that are more specialized and technologically advanced. These sectors offer greater potential for long-term growth and resilience compared to traditional steel production.
Industry ROE (Return on Equity) data reflects a more realistic picture of the current situation. The current ROE level is at a historically low point, and it's expected to remain near these levels for an extended period. Globally, iron ore supply capacity has been increasing steadily, with supply growth exceeding 10% annually. However, demand growth has remained sluggish, often below 10%, leading to worsening supply-demand imbalances. This imbalance has contributed to rising iron ore prices and declining valuations across the sector. The price trends for iron ore are now quite clear, and coal prices still have room for further declines.
China’s economic transformation is an unavoidable path forward. Structural adjustments will inevitably affect traditional industries, but they will also create significant opportunities for emerging sectors. Luo Baihui believes that the future of the metal industry lies in new materials. As a result, research efforts within the industry are shifting toward these innovative areas.
In 2013, the key theme was to zoom in on the fine-molecular industry, particularly sectors like super-hard materials, high-end pipes, and special steel. Here’s a closer look at each:
1) **Special Steel**: The industry’s future development is well-defined, with performance rebounds and government support acting as key catalysts for growth.
2) **High-End Pipes**: This sector is driven by orders, with stable growth expected over the next two years due to ongoing infrastructure projects and industrial demand.
3) **Diamonds**: Closely tied to fixed asset investment, the diamond industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle. Future expansion of the industrial chain and shifts in investment cycles suggest a positive outlook moving forward.