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Steel industry investment strategy: transfer of diamonds and other fields
The steel industry remains a challenging sector to navigate, with limited progress in capacity reduction and entrenched cost pricing mechanisms. The investment strategy for 2013 centers around patience, waiting for the next market cycle. Luo Baihui, chief analyst at Jinmo Steel Network, expressed cautious optimism regarding certain sub-sectors such as special steel, high-end pipes, and diamond materials, while maintaining a more skeptical view on Pugang and iron ore.
Over the past six months, the core logic behind the investment thesis has remained consistent, with no major deviations observed. Looking ahead, the focus will continue to shift toward the fine-molecular industries, which are expected to show stronger resilience and growth potential.
Industry ROE (Return on Equity) data reflects a realistic and concerning trend. Currently, the steel industry's ROE is at historically low levels, and this situation is likely to persist for an extended period. Globally, iron ore supply has been increasing year by year, with supply growth exceeding 10%, while demand growth has remained below single digits. This imbalance has led to worsening supply-demand dynamics, rising iron ore prices, and declining valuations across the sector. The current price trends for iron ore are quite clear, and coal prices also have room for further declines.
Luo Baihui emphasized that China’s economic transformation is inevitable. Structural adjustments will inevitably impact traditional industries, but they will also create significant opportunities for emerging sectors. He believes that the future of the metal industry lies in new materials, and research efforts will increasingly focus on this area.
The key theme for 2013 is to zoom in on the fine-molecular industry, particularly sectors like super-hard materials, high-end pipes, and special steel. These areas are seen as having strong long-term growth potential.
1) **Special Steel**: The industry’s development path is well-defined, with performance recovery and policy support acting as key catalysts for future growth.
2) **High-End Pipes**: Driven by orders, this sector is expected to maintain stable growth over the next two years.
3) **Diamonds**: Closely tied to fixed asset investment, the industrial chain expansion and shifting investment cycles suggest that we are currently at the bottom of the cycle, with potential for recovery ahead.