It is difficult to achieve the capacity target, and the shale gas golden age road is still long.

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**Abstract:** By 2015, large-scale production of shale gas was expected to be achieved, with annual output reaching 6.5 billion cubic meters. This was part of the "Shale Gas" 12th Five-Year Plan, released in March of last year. Since then, the phrase "6.5 billion cubic meters" has become a hot topic among many people. However, despite the ambitious targets, the progress has been slower than anticipated. According to data from the Ministry of Land and Resources, as of the end of March 2013, a total of 7 billion yuan had been invested in shale gas exploration and development across the country. A total of 130 shale gas wells were drilled, including 46 geological survey wells, 55 vertical wells, and 28 horizontal wells. Additionally, 9,000 kilometers of 2D seismic surveys and 800 square kilometers of 3D seismic surveys were conducted. These operations were mainly carried out in Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Chongqing by companies such as PetroChina, Sinopec, and Yanchang Petroleum. In 2012, the country produced approximately 30 million cubic meters of shale gas, with about 15 million cubic meters sold through the natural gas pipeline network. According to the Oil and Gas Resources Survey Center of the China Geological Survey, after hydraulic fracturing and testing, there are currently 23 shale gas wells producing over 10,000 cubic meters per day, 10 wells producing more than 100,000 cubic meters per day, and four under trial mining. It is estimated that this year’s shale gas production could reach 200 million cubic meters. However, despite these figures, the actual output remains far below the targets set in the 12th Five-Year Plan. The second round of shale gas bidding has faced delays and challenges. While major players like "two barrels of oil" have made significant progress, the costs involved are high. Many enterprises that entered the sector through bidding suffer from financial constraints or lack of technical expertise, putting them in a difficult position. Over the past two years, the overall development of shale gas in China has not met expectations. Last year’s output was only 50 million cubic meters, and this year’s target of 200 million cubic meters still falls short of the plan’s goals. Some wells show unstable performance, and investment levels remain insufficient. Technological advancements in exploration have also been limited. Ren Haoning, a researcher at China Investment Consulting, noted that while the plans for shale gas development have played a positive role in guiding the industry, they have also sparked debates. Companies have not fully treated shale gas as a sustainable and long-term industry. He hopes that within the next three to five years, shale gas will make meaningful progress and help reshape China’s energy structure. However, many projects are driven more by policy considerations than by a clear industrial strategy. With the third round of shale gas bidding on the horizon, the news that the scale exceeds the combined total of the first two rounds has boosted the shale gas concept stocks. Currently, more than a dozen gas wells are entering commercial development stages. After the first two rounds, shale gas has once again captured market attention after a period of quiet. Ren Haoning emphasized that for the third round, it doesn’t matter if private or state-owned enterprises participate. What matters is preventing the issue where some companies win bids but fail to explore. The government should require bidders to submit detailed development schedules and publish them publicly. The final selection of winners should take these schedules into account. At the same time, winning bidders should strengthen collaboration with local enterprises to improve efficiency. Li Yulong, a strategic management expert at CNPC, stressed that the development of shale gas is still in an early accumulation phase and should not be rushed. He suggested focusing on technological research rather than setting overly specific targets. The “golden age” of shale gas requires more patience and rationality.

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