On January 16th, the price of natural rubber rose sharply. However, on January 20th, the price of goods dropped sharply. As of January 20th, the closing price of the main contract of natural rubber was 19,735 yuan per ton, which was a sharp decrease of 1,490 yuan per ton on that day, and the price of natural rubber ** fluctuated sharply.

Negative effects at home and abroad

Data monitoring showed that the natural rubber quotation was RMB 18,540/tonne on January 20, and since the New Year's Day, the natural rubber market price has continued to rise, but on January 20, the price has dropped sharply, and the decline has been alarming.

Analysts pointed out that the sharp drop in spot prices is the result of both domestic and foreign negative effects. On the one hand, due to the recent substantial increase in local supply in the natural rubber market, Thailand rubber stocks were mainly stored on weekends, and Thailand sold 98,000 tons of rubber stocks, including rubber blocks and smoke films. In addition, there is still a high inventory of 222,000 tons in the State Reserve Rubber. Affected by Thailand's release of stocks, the natural rubber market price is rapidly changing. On the other hand, the negative effect of the domestic side, the rubber stocks in the domestic bonded port area in Qingdao increased significantly. As of mid-January, its inventory was 121,800 tons, a substantial increase of 16% from the end of December last year. The sharp increase in stocks is undoubtedly a big negative for natural rubber market prices.

The year is near, the domestic tire operating rate has declined. As of mid-January, the operating rate of all-steel tire enterprises is about 62%; the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises is about 65%, which is lower than the 70% of the tire operating rate in December last year. 5 percentage points. The lower operating rate of tire companies has reduced the demand for natural rubber, which has led to a substantial drop in natural rubber market prices. Commodities appear "turbulence"

In fact, the volatility of natural rubber also reflects the recent developments in the commodity market.

In the first half of January, the market was slightly flat, and in the middle of the month, there was “turbulence”. At the close of the market on January 16th, the main varieties, especially the black ones, re-emerged in a booming market, with iron ore rising 7.22%, coke rising 7.22%, and coking coal. Up 5.37%, thread up 5.24%, other commodities such as PP, methanol, etc. also rose more than 4% on the day. However, in the following two days, the black line “jumped up and down”, showing a plunge. On January 17th, coke fell 6.68%, coking coal fell 5.93%, thermal coal fell 4.82%, and agricultural products went strong. On January 19, the commodity ** was turbulent again and again, while the coking coal and coke turned red and the hot rolled coil led the drop. The performance of the market in the mid-range and the market differentiation in the early days are obvious. The current market's ups and downs are neither a bull market nor a bear market.

Liu Xintian, secretary-general of China Commodity Development Research Center, believes that the performance of the mid-commodity market can be called the “pulse” phenomenon, and the pulse refers to the pulse-like transient fluctuations.

Liu Xintian pointed out that the cause of the market's pulse was the “turbulence effect”, and the different flows that affected the market's changing factors collided with each other to form a spoiler. This time it was the collision of the capital flow and the market confidence flow, which made the market appear pulsed. Under the background of a bullish commodity market, the market has set off a wave of speculative enthusiasm, but the Spring Festival holiday soon, confidence flow does not support the market continue to hype, after the CDRC released the January commodity confidence index (CCI) was -0.11 The market confidence is relatively stable and bearish. However, the capital flow is still at the "not bad" pace. The crazy rising tide of the market in the fourth quarter of 2016 seems to be making a comeback again. The flow of funds and the flow of confidence are obviously not at a rhythm. Interference between each other forms a spoiler, causing a pulse. With the tightening of real estate market policies, the next step in the flow of funds has also become uncertain, and the market for the latter half of the week soon fell into a correction.

Liu Xintian believes that the pulse of the market is short-term, not a regular rhythm. Even if it causes "mad cows," it will not last long. However, it does not rule out that there will be disturbances in the market in the near future. It is expected that the next wave of disturbance will be Before and after the Spring Festival, under the common disturbance of multiple flows, the market will also show repeated shocks. “The natural rubber market has a large pulse in one week, which is affected by the 'spoiler effect' of the market, which caused the domestic natural rubber market price to fluctuate significantly last week.”

As for the natural rubber market, Chen Ling, a business analyst at Tianshe, believes that the market price of natural rubber is now at a high level, and the release of storage in Thailand has led to a substantial increase in domestic natural rubber supply. Domestic stocks have continued to rise and are approaching the end of the year. Both transaction and logistics transportation have been weakened. “It is expected that the market price of natural rubber will decline in the short term, but due to relatively sufficient capital flow, the price decline will be limited, and the market price will remain at around 18,000 yuan/ton.”