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IMF assesses Chinese government debt to 50% of GDP
David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), spoke in Beijing on May 29th about concerns regarding China’s local government financing platforms. He highlighted that when these platforms are included under the broader concept of "augmented" general government debt, the total debt could reach nearly 50% of GDP. In 2012, the corresponding "augmented" fiscal deficit was estimated to be around 10% of GDP.
Lipton made these remarks during a press conference following the IMF delegation's annual policy consultation with China, known as the fourth Article IV consultation. While acknowledging that part of this deficit is funded through land transfers and that the augmented debt remains manageable, he emphasized the need for gradual reduction in the medium term to ensure long-term debt sustainability. Key measures include continuing tax reforms, realigning local government finances, optimizing resource allocation based on spending needs, and reforming local government investment and borrowing mechanisms.
The IMF team visited Beijing, Shanghai, Guiyang, and Anshun between May 15 and 29, conducting the 2013 China Policy Fourth Consultation. According to their assessment, the IMF expects China's economic growth to reach 7.75% this year. They also noted that recent credit expansion may help boost global growth slightly, though the projected rate is lower than the 8% forecast in 2012. Lipton attributed this decline to the impact of slower global economic growth on Chinese exports, which have recently slowed due to weaker international demand. He urged China to shift from export-led growth to a more sustainable model driven by domestic consumption.
In addition, Lipton pointed out several major challenges facing the Chinese economy. The rapid growth of total social financing—broadly defined as credit expansion—raises concerns about the quality of investments and their impact on liquidity. A growing share of this credit is not effectively monitored, increasing financial risks. Economic growth has become overly reliant on continued investment, particularly in real estate and local government projects, which has put pressure on both sectors. Meanwhile, rising income inequality and environmental degradation underscore the urgency of transitioning to a more balanced and sustainable growth model.