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Turning the pulse of China's economic direction--Report from the China Development Forum
In the context of the continued deepening of the European sovereign debt crisis, the slowdown in world economic growth, and the increase in domestic economic uncertainty, what is the trend of the Chinese economy? What are the risks and challenges that will be faced? What measures will the relevant departments take to respond effectively? At the "China Development High-Level Forum 2012" annual meeting hosted by the Development Research Center of the State Council, well-known economists and government officials from home and abroad took the pulse of the Chinese economy to find the direction of China's sustainable development. The factors driving China's economic development have not changed in the face of the severe and complicated domestic and international economic environment in the past year. The Chinese economy has achieved a high growth rate of 9.2%. Although this figure has declined from the previous year, it is far away. Higher than the growth level of developed countries. Participants judged that as the factors driving China's economic development have not changed in general, the Chinese economy will still be in a relatively fast-growing range in the future. "Affected by factors such as changes in the international economic environment and the country's active regulation and control, the Chinese economy has shown signs of slowing down since last year, but it is still in a normal and stable range." Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that urbanization and industrialization Marketization and internationalization are the basic factors for the long-term stable and rapid development of the Chinese economy. These factors have not fundamentally changed. At the same time, China still has a lot of room for improvement in the process of urbanization, industrialization, marketization and internationalization. According to Steven Roach, a professor at Yale University and a non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley (Asia), despite the many risks in the Chinese economy, the Chinese economy will not have the “hard landing†phenomenon that people worry about because of the proper response. "Since the international financial crisis, the Chinese government has made steady growth, inflation, and structural adjustment an important focus of economic work, to adjust and improve macroeconomic policies in response to changes in domestic and international situations, and to enhance the pertinence, flexibility and forward-looking of regulation. It has effectively promoted the economic growth by the government to enter the track of independent growth, promoted the transformation of development mode and the adjustment of economic structure, and maintained a good momentum of economic and social development." Zhang Ping, director of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out. The risks faced cannot be ignored. Under the circumstances that the external development environment continues to deteriorate, the internal development is unbalanced, the uncoordinated, and the unsustainable contradictions are still prominent, the participants generally believe that the current Chinese economy is facing more challenges and risks. Neglect. "In the past year, the Chinese economy has achieved gratifying results in terms of steady growth, price control, and structural adjustment, but it still faces the dual challenge of falling economic growth potential and excessive price pressure. At the same time, in the field of economic and financial There are also some potential risks that cannot be ignored." Li Wei, director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out. "Although the basic factors that have driven China's rapid development in the past few decades have not changed significantly, some advantages that support China's rapid economic development are weakening." Ma Jiantang believes that the current labor resources advantage in supporting China's economic development is weakening, and The constraints from the resource environment have become increasingly prominent, and the constraints faced by China's rapid economic growth have gradually increased. Some economists believe that the current global liquidity has added new uncertainties to China's economic development. Economist Yu Yongding believes that the current central bank of developed countries has entered the "printing era", and its consequences are self-evident for China, the world's largest creditor country. Structural adjustment has become an urgent task. In the past year, China’s economy has achieved gratifying results in terms of steady growth, price control, and structural adjustment. However, imbalances, uncoordinated and unsustainable contradictions in economic development still exist. China’s economy Structural adjustment has reached a critical moment. "When China's rapid economic growth is facing increasing constraints, our only way out is to further increase the way we transfer and adjust the structure, and promote the steady and rapid development of China's economy." Ma Jiantang pointed out. Ma Jiantang’s point of view was recognized by Li Wei. "In the short term, the economic recovery is of course very important, but if the deep-seated structural contradictions are not resolved, the foundation of economic recovery cannot be stabilized, and the momentum of recovery cannot be long-lasting." In Li Wei’s view, it began in 2008. The reason why the impact of the international financial crisis of the year is so intense and long-lasting is that the long-term structural imbalance of the world economy, the task of current economic restructuring is arduous and urgent for China and the world. "We must make new progress in transforming the way we develop our economy, because this is the key to solving the problem of imbalance, uncoordinated and unsustainable development in China's development." Zhang Pingyan, the way of turning has become a long-term and current period. Urgent task. Experts generally believe that the transformation of economic growth momentum from investment and exports to domestic demand is an important direction for China's economic rebalancing. Liu He, deputy director of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group Office, pointed out that by promoting urbanization to achieve domestic demand and promotion fees, this will be the main feature of future economic development. “The increase of urban population, the emergence of middle-income class and rising consumer demand will play an important role in stimulating China's economic growth and will also have an important impact on the transformation of China's economic structure.†Deepening reform should achieve new breakthroughs. The urgency of the structural adjustment task reflects the reality that the Chinese economy needs to continue to push for reform. Further accelerating the reform has become the hottest topic in this forum. Participants generally believed that it is necessary to adhere to the reform direction of the socialist market economy, resolutely resolve to overcome difficulties, and resolutely promote reforms in various fields. "In recent years, China's economic development mode transformation and industrial upgrading have achieved certain results, but the investment is too high, the cost is too high, and the system that is conducive to innovation and entrepreneurship has never been established. Why is this happening? The reason is the economy. The institutional obstacles have not been eliminated, and the reforms are not strong enough.†Economist Wu Jinglian said. Qian Yingyi, an economist who recently served as a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, also pointed out that there are deep-seated reasons behind the slow progress of structural adjustment. It requires deep-level reforms, and the relationship between the government and residents, enterprises, and the market must be adjusted. In the view of Liu Zunyi, chairman of CIC International (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., if the Chinese economy is to achieve sustainable development in the next few years, it must promote reforms in the areas of taxation system and capital account convertibility. "We must make new breakthroughs in deepening reform and opening up." Zhang Ping pointed out that in the future, efforts will be made to promote reforms in key areas and key links, especially in reforming resource product prices, income distribution systems, and fiscal and taxation systems. To promote a more complete social and economic system. "Continue unswervingly push forward the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, further improve the public finance system, and vigorously support the promotion of reforms in the areas of price and finance," said Minister of Finance Xie Xuren.