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“It’s not just aluminum stocks. It should be said that the colored sectors are more optimistic. Although due to the psychological factors such as Christmas and the end of the year, the non-ferrous metals prices will continue to rise in the long run, as the non-ferrous metals prices will continue to rise in the long run. The flood of international liquidity has led to an increase in the prices of international commodities, and non-ferrous metals including aluminum are no exception. At present, the price of non-ferrous metals in the international market is still at a high level, and due to the linkage effect, the domestic non-ferrous prices will also Rising. Of course, the share price of listed companies will also rise. Fan Haibo, an analyst at Cinda Securities' non-ferrous metals industry, told reporters that the non-ferrous metals in the market will continue to rise.
Aluminum prices continue to heat up and remain unchanged. It is reported that as major economies such as the United States and Europe continue to implement ultra-loose monetary policies, global liquidity is rampant, and the prospects of the European debt crisis remain unclear, so that commodity heat continues to heat up, including gold and silver. Non-ferrous metals such as copper have reached new heights. This week, LME's basic metals rose, with nickel rising the most, reaching 3.6%, and the rest of the metals rose by more than 1%. Although affected by profit-taking, the previous strong rally of copper has been adjusted back recently, but there is news that next year's US auto market sales are expected to rebound to 13 million, driven by strong auto industry growth, aluminum demand remains strong Therefore, aluminum still maintains a strong trend.
On the 21st, London aluminum opened higher and higher, unilaterally rising, the highest rushed to 2439.8 US dollars, and finally closed at 2,428 US dollars, compared with the closing price of the previous trading day, rose 62 US dollars, or 2.62%. On the 22nd, three-month aluminum has hit a monthly high of $2,469 per tonne. The industry generally believes that after the rise of Lun Aluminum, there may be a slight correction, and then continue to go up. According to analyst firm Castlestone Management, aluminum is the metal of choice for the next six months, and aluminum prices could hit $2,500 per ton next year.
The reporter found that the global inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel and tin in the global exchanges decreased by 20.3%, 3.9%, 16.5% and 40.9%. As the gap between demand and supply further increases, metal prices in the international market are expected to continue to strengthen in the future. The trend of domestic non-ferrous metals prices is not weak. The National Bureau of Statistics showed that non-ferrous metals showed a general upward trend in mid-October. The latest key monitoring data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that the price of non-ferrous metals rose by 1.3% last week (December 13-19). Among them, copper, zinc, nickel and tin rose by 2.8%, 1.6%, 1.3% and 1.0% respectively. Among them, aluminum prices have risen for two consecutive weeks. On the 22nd, Shanghai Aluminum broke the 60-day line pressure and hit a new high in the past month. As of yesterday, Shanghai Aluminum remained strong. Among them, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum Contract 1111 has reached 17,655 yuan / ton.
"In the non-ferrous sector, the main focus is on the following two directions. One is the base metal with large increase in copper and zinc. The other is to focus on the rare metal with strategic position, because scarcity and supply restrictions will further push up its price. "Ping An Securities analyst Li Yan told reporters in an interview. Taking é’½ as an example, the current price of small-volume high-grade tantalum powder has exceeded 100 US dollars / lb, while the price range of bulk goods is 110-120 US dollars / lb, and it is difficult to find the source of supply. In addition, the US Securities and Exchange Commission announced on December 16 that the proposal requires US companies to stop using ore from the Congo, including the plutonium, to further tighten the supply situation and hope to further increase prices.
The company with resource advantages has great potential. "Although domestic liquidity is tight, I think that in the long run, metal prices will continue to rise in the later period, and related listings will directly benefit from it. I am more optimistic about aluminum, zinc and copper. The listed company." Fan Haibo said. According to public information, LME aluminum continued to rise. “Technically, Lun Aluminum still maintains a good upward trend. As international prices continue to rise and domestic production decreases accordingly, I believe that it will continue to provide incentives for aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will continue to rise in the short term.†Fan Haibo analysis.
An industry analyst at Datong Securities shares the same view with Fan Haibo. He said, “Because the Christmas season in Europe and the United States is coming, some funds have profit-taking requirements, but from the demand side, there is still room for growth in non-ferrous metals including aluminum. From the domestic situation, due to the "12th Five-Year Plan Research Report on the Power Industry" issued by the China Electricity Council, on the 21st, China's electricity price will increase by 3% every year in the next 10 years. From now less than 6 cents, electricity may rise to 8 cents in 2020. Electricity is one of the main costs of electrolytic aluminum, so rising electricity prices will inevitably lead to rising costs, which will push up the future aluminum price."
In addition to the strong supply of base metals such as aluminum and zinc, the strategic small metals are not to be underestimated. According to public information, relevant domestic departments have conducted research on strategic storage and storage of 10 rare metals. In addition, the export quota for rare metals will be reduced by 2% to 3% year by year, and the downward trend of the more strategic export quotas for rare earth products is still under discussion.
"National strategic storage can not only control the supply situation, but the greater significance lies in the gradual possession of metal pricing power, which means that the price of strategic rare metal is rising, and the price of small metals is currently at a relatively high level."
However, Fan Haibo also pointed out that although listed companies can benefit from the rise in non-ferrous metals prices, listed companies with mineral resources will benefit more. “A listed company with its own resources or a stable source of resources can really benefit from the price increase of metals. For example, Jiangxi Copper, Yunnan Copper, etc., but if it is only processed, or affected by fluctuations in resource prices, The company will not benefit much. For example, the Oriental Industry, which had a daily limit, did not have its own antimony resources."
Aluminum prices continue to heat up and do not change the aluminum industry glory
Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly lower. The two cities contracted and weakened, and the stocks rose more and more, and the plate activity was not high. However, driven by the relatively strong aluminum stocks, the early-stage non-ferrous sector was once performing, and the sector's gains were relatively high. At the close, the shares of Yun Aluminum and Chang Aluminum rose more than 4%, while Nanshan Aluminum and Chinalco also performed well.