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Wu Bolin: Machine tool "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will enter the stage of tackling
2010 is the closing year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. 2011 is the year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. The development of the machine tool industry is in such a critical period of inheritance. In 2010, the machine tool industry achieved gratifying results. First, in terms of development scale, the machine tool industry achieved steady and rapid development in 2010. From January to November, the total industrial output value of the whole industry was 493.4 billion yuan. It is expected to complete 545 billion yuan in the whole year, an increase of 40.5% over the same period of last year. It is more than three times more than the 166.5 billion in the early 11th Five-Year Plan. In November, the sales revenue was 476.26 billion yuan, which is expected to reach more than 530 billion yuan, an increase of 40% over the same period of last year. From January to November, the sales value of output value reached 97.4%, a slight increase over the same period of last year; from January to November, The industry's profit was 31.05 billion yuan, and the annual sales profit rate is expected to reach 6.5% to 6.6%, which is also the best level in history. Second, there have been significant improvements in technological innovation and product mix adjustment. From January to November, the whole industry produced 680,000 metal cutting machine tools, an increase of 32% over the same period of last year. Among them, CNC machine tools were 200,000 units, an increase of 67.9% over the same period of last year. It can be seen that the output value and the numerical control rate are both improved a lot. Third, there has been great progress in the adjustment of industrial structure. It has always been a breakthrough in the field of CNC systems and functional components in the industry. In recent years, the country has paid more and more attention to the development of these two fields. In the past, the mainframe industry was big but not strong, and the numerical control system and functional components industry was It is neither too big nor strong. Now, the numerical control system and the functional component industry have greatly improved in scale over the past two years. The sales revenue and output value of several major CNC system enterprises and functional components companies in the industry have increased substantially. Can keep in sync with the OEM. But at the same time, we must also see that there are still many gaps in the industry. The first difference is reflected in the insufficient industrialization of domestically produced medium and high-end CNC machine tools, and the market competitiveness of products is not strong. From January to November, China imported machine tool products worth 13.98 billion US dollars, creating a record high, 20% higher than 2008 before the financial crisis. Among them, the import of metal processing machine tools was 8.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 57% over the same period of last year, while the domestic metal processing machine tools only increased by 34%. The comparison of the two figures shows that from January to November, the domestic market share of domestic metal processing machine tools has decreased, which indicates that the industry's competitiveness in the middle and high-end market is still relatively weak. In terms of exports, from January to November, the industry exported machine tool products worth 6.3 billion US dollars, of which metal processing machine tools only exported 1.64 billion yuan. It can be seen that the difference between the export value and the import value is still very large, and the import and export deficit has increased by a large margin, reaching 65%, and the export products are mainly low-end. There are several reasons for the poor market competitiveness of domestic high-end CNC machine tools: the quality of the products is not high, the price is not low, and the manufacturing capacity of medium and high-end products is still not enough. The second gap is reflected in the irrational industrial structure. Despite the progress in industrial restructuring during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, it has not been fundamentally resolved. The contradiction between the development of CNC systems and functional components and the rapid development of the industry has become increasingly prominent. In 2010, imports of CNC systems and functional components increased, and they grew faster than imports of mainframe products. In 2010, FANUC expects sales to increase by 210%. Siemens expects sales to increase by 60%. It is difficult for domestic CNC system companies to look back. It is obvious that the industry has not fundamentally solved this shortcoming. The third gap is reflected in the way of development. The profit margin of the machine tool industry has been at a low level. It is expected that the industry's profit margin will reach more than 6% in 2010, which is the highest level in history, but it is in line with the manufacturing companies in developed countries that have gotten rid of low-level operations internationally. Compared, the gap is great. For example, DMG's profit margin is about 15%, and FANUC is about 25% to 30%. Therefore, from the operating results, the domestic machine tool industry has not yet got rid of the low-level scale benefits; from the product point of view, there are still problems of hard and soft, and now many domestic and high-end CNC machine tool products can also be done, the hardware level is indeed A lot of improvement, but the level of software can't keep up with development. For example, the domestic five-coordinate linkage blade milling price can be sold to two or three million, while the international price of such brand-name products is sold to 10 million yuan, not including the software part, and the software will cost another 10 million yuan. In many sales, the proportion of domestic enterprises' income through software and all-round turnkey projects is still very small, resulting in a decline in the market share of domestic machine tools in 2010 compared with 70.1% in 2009, which is expected to reach 66.7. %. Although the industry has developed at a relatively fast pace in recent years, it should be noted that competitors are growing faster than us and demand is growing faster.