Sinochem New Network News In the domestic phosphate market in 2011, whether it is the parent raw material yellow phosphorus or a large number of downstream phosphate species, most of the time it is showing a trend of sluggishness, during which only a short period of time goes up. In 2012, under the macro-environment that the impact of the European debt crisis has not been eliminated and may even increase, and the domestic economic growth is slowing down, the phosphate market is not favored by the industry.

The market has been overshadowed by losses in 2011. In addition to the severe divergence between huge production capacity and effective demand in 2011, the phosphate industry also faces large increases in phosphate rock prices, increases in electricity prices, steep increase in labor costs, and higher transportation and logistics costs. Reduce profit factors. In particular, due to continuous drought in Yunnan-Guizhou region, the lack of hydropower resources and power shortage are the highest in five years. In addition, during the National Games, Guizhou Yellow Phosphorus was almost completely shut down, causing the two yellow phosphorus provinces to drive at a low rate. The production of yellow phosphorus in the two provinces accounts for more than 60% of the national total output. Numerous factors have led to a gradual increase in the manufacturing cost of yellow raw materials, which has been rising from 12,000 yuan (t price) in the beginning of the year to more than 16,500 yuan in the fourth quarter, and has passed high costs through the industrial chain to downstream phosphates. product.

Due to the lack of downstream demand, although the price of yellow phosphorus remains high, phosphate prices are weak, the trend is abnormally weak, the operating rate of the industry is low, inventory is scarce, and companies generally suffer serious losses. The market as a whole was buoyant, but only a short pulse occurred occasionally when a certain policy was issued or when the overall inventory was depleted.

Tighter constraints on the policy environment In 2012, taking into account the domestic policy environment and the inherent "two high and one resource" attributes of phosphate, its survival will not be harder than in 2011. The China Chemical Mining Association announced the "Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for Chemical Industry Mining" in 2011, requiring the establishment of a reserve system for phosphate mineral resources during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period so as to realize the scale and intensive integration of mining enterprises and implement mining and selection. Centralized processing and integrated development. Although this move has not contributed to substantial consolidation of phosphate rock resources in 2011, it has triggered a new round of price hikes for phosphate rock. At present, the price of phosphate rock pits at more than 28% grade in Hubei is nearly 600 yuan. According to the 10 tons of yellow phosphorus consumption per ton of phosphorus ore, only this item is 6,000 yuan, and the cost of yellow phosphorus has been significantly increased.

Yellow phosphorus is a high-energy-consuming industry, with a unit product consumption of up to 15,000 kilowatt-hours and a power cost of more than 65%. In view of the high energy consumption of yellow phosphorus, some industry players are trying to find new ways to avoid the high-energy thermal-phosphoric acid route and change the way of wet-process phosphoric acid in order to reduce product costs. However, in 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Environmental Access Requirements for the Phosphate-Ammonia Industry”, which clearly stipulates: In principle, no new or expanded wet-process phosphoric acid and associated monoammonium phosphate or diammonium phosphate plants will be newly built or expanded within 3 years, except in accordance with regional planning relocation projects. . Relocation of new or reconstructed expansion projects must comply with national industrial policies and relevant policies and regulations. Existing wet-process phosphoric acid plants must effectively address pollution before they can operate. Wet-process phosphoric acid was stopped because of the large amount of phosphogypsum produced in the process and it could not be digested. Many toxic and harmful trace elements polluted the environment. This measure will undoubtedly inhibit the formation of wet-process phosphoric acid. Phosphoric acid will also be the mainstream process for phosphate. While high energy consumption is inevitable, in 2012, the entire phosphate industry must be accompanied by high costs, indicating the quality of the industry's operation. Difficult to change.

The lack of market demand The traditional industrial applications for export resistance to phosphate resistance are mainly detergent builders, ceramic builders, water treatment agents, and metal surface treatments. However, the bulk of the product, sodium tripolyphosphate as a washing aid, has sharply decreased with the expansion of the scope of banned phosphorus, and it is no longer used as an additive in more than 70% of domestic areas, and its largest industrial use has thus disappeared. At the same time, due to the decline in the growth rate of the automotive industry in recent years, the demand for phosphating solutions for metal surface treatment agents has slowed down. However, other industrial uses of phosphate have not grown over the years, so the overall demand is not buoyant, the market is slow to develop, and new applications are underdeveloped. In order to optimize the extension of the industrial chain, companies in the industry have developed food grade, pharmaceutical grade, and electronic grade phosphate deep processing products. But unfortunately, the market capacity is not large, and its overall proportion is less than 10%.

Due to the obvious characteristics of resources and energy of yellow phosphorus and its phosphate varieties, it has been frequently regulated by export policies in recent years. At present, exports still implement 20% of the tariff, which is not low for the low-profit or loss-making industry. At the same time, more than 10 types of phosphates were covered in the Circular on Canceling Tax Refunds on Certain Goods Exported by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation, which undoubtedly increased the operating costs of exporting companies. According to the current phosphate price, to implement the export tax rebate rate of 5%, increase the export cost of 350-400 yuan per ton of product. This kind of cost increase factor, in addition to the advantages of mining and phosphorus integration of the enterprise, the general business is difficult to digest, the company would rather stop production, it will not rashly export, completely lost its export momentum.

At the same time, as a traditional phosphate exporter, it is facing more and more overseas competition. In recent years, the phosphate industry in Algeria and other countries in North Africa has risen rapidly and has produced tens of thousands of tons of production capacity. With low cost and geographical advantages, the major export destinations are the European and American regions, competing for market share with Chinese products. In addition, the European Commission announced on December 14th, 2011 that the domestic detergent banned phosphorus legislation marks the complete ban on phosphorus in the EU, and that the country’s annual reduction in phosphate exports will be completely shut down.

In summary, under the circumstances that the upstream yellow phosphorus cost support and the downstream demand are not strong, the 2012 domestic phosphate market basically replicated the trend in 2011. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will run between 15,000 and 22,000 yuan; the intermediate 85% phosphoric acid will generally run between 6000 and 7,000 yuan; and the tripolyphosphate and other varieties will remain at 7,000 to 9,000 yuan.