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New ban pushes up bauxite costs
Industry is "worse"
From the perspective of the industrial chain of aluminum, the upstream is bauxite, alumina, and the downstream is construction, transportation, home appliances and other industries. In general, aluminum products are mainly electrolytic aluminum and aluminum.
From the perspective of pricing model, it mainly includes upstream supply and downstream demand. The interaction between the two forces affects the pricing of products.
From the upstream point of view, China has about 3.87 billion tons of reserve bauxite, accounting for 3% of global reserves, and raw material resources are not abundant.
In addition, the quality of domestic bauxite is poor, and hard aluminum that is difficult to process and consumes a large amount accounts for 98% of the total reserves. Therefore, domestic bauxite is heavily dependent on imports, and because of the continuous construction of domestic alumina production capacity, demand is also rising.
On January 13, Indonesia, the world's largest supplier of mineral resources, announced that it would ban the export of all varieties of raw ore, with the aim of further strengthening the development of its domestic smelting industry. Indonesia was previously a major bauxite importer in China and also occupied a certain share of the world's bauxite supply. The issuance of the ban directly led to a reduction in the supply of bauxite, which pushed up the price of bauxite and further increased the cost of raw materials for enterprises.
“The rise in bauxite prices is similar to the increase in international iron ore prices. First, international demand is rising. Second, major producers restrict exports. In the past few years, the rapid increase in iron ore prices has caused the domestic steel industry. The huge impact, domestic bauxite should avoid repeating the same mistakes." A non-ferrous metal industry analyst in Shanghai introduced.
Due to the increase in bauxite prices and the severe overcapacity in the alumina industry itself, relevant statistics show that alumina capacity utilization is only maintained at around 70%. What's worse, the current alumina spot price is close to or even lower than its Cost of production.
From the perspective of the cost of electrolytic aluminum, not the main raw material alumina has the highest cost, and it is the energy consumption of energy, which accounts for 43% of the cost, and the alumina occupation cost is 35%.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other relevant departments issued the "Notice on the implementation of the ladder electricity price policy for the use of electrolytic aluminum enterprises." The notice is clear, according to the actual level of electricity consumption of the electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the previous year, the price is determined by the file.
The electrolytic AC power consumption of aluminum industry is not higher than 13,700 kWh per ton. The normal electricity price is implemented. In the interval of 13700 to 13800, the price of electricity increases by 0.02 yuan per kWh, which is higher than 13,800 kWh. The price of electricity increases by 0.08 yuan per kWh.
"The introduction of this policy has a certain effect on reducing electrolytic aluminum production capacity. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has been increasing in production capacity in the past few years," said the analyst.
At present, there is a serious overcapacity situation in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry, and the comprehensive capacity utilization rate is only about 80%. Full and even chaotic competition has caused the price of electrolytic aluminum and the cost of production to appear upside down.
At present, the domestic production cost is about 15,000 yuan / ton. If the price of raw materials rises, this figure will be further improved, and the electrolytic aluminum industry itself, which is already overwhelmed, will face greater difficulties.
From the downstream point of view, the demand for aluminum in the real estate industry and the transportation industry accounts for half of the downstream demand of aluminum. Therefore, the economic situation of these two industries will directly affect the demand for electrolytic aluminum.
The same pressure at home and abroad
Not only domestic, the price of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline, but also has a big impact on some foreign industry leaders.
Alcoa recently announced that the company lost $2.34 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013, with a loss of $2.19 per share. In the fourth quarter of 2012, Alcoa had a profit of $240 million and earnings per share of 21 cents.
The decline in the performance of Alcoa is basically consistent with the performance of aluminum prices. In the fourth quarter of 2012, the bottom price of LME aluminum was at $1,900/ton, while in 2013, aluminum prices continued to bottom out, from $2,075 at the beginning of the year to $1,745 at the end of the year, down 15.9% for the year.
Alcoa is the world's largest aluminum company, which specializes in back-end high-end aluminum processing, but this does not save the company's performance.
Chinalco (3.20, -0.09, -2.74%) announced on the evening of January 10 that, after preliminary calculations by the financial department, it is expected that the 2013 annual results will turn into a profit, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company will be about 1 billion yuan. .
However, behind this transcript is exchanged for a large amount of assets sold. Previously, Chinalco has suffered losses for two consecutive years, and if it loses, it will be forced to wear ST's hat.
In order to turn losses, Chinalco (601600.SH) sold assets twice in the first half of 2013, including the 6.1 billion Guizhou branch alumina production line and the Northwest Aluminum Processing Branch and other assets and the 5 billion Chinalco Henan Aluminum Co., Ltd. The company and Chinalco Qingdao Light Metal Co., Ltd. claims.
In October 2013, Chinalco transferred another 10 billion yuan of equity. After three transactions, Chinalco finally turned losses before the year-end settlement. However, if the profit and loss of the sale of assets are removed, the performance of Chinalco will undoubtedly be very ugly.
New direction mergers and acquisitions
As an important issue affecting the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry for a long time, overcapacity has increasingly attracted the attention of the industry, regulatory agencies and even the whole society.
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Nonferrous Metals Industry†has made clear plans for improving the concentration of the industry. It is required that by 2015, the top 10 enterprises in aluminum will account for 90% of the total output of the country. According to statistics, at present, the concentration of the top 10 enterprises in the domestic aluminum industry is less than 40%, so the task of restructuring is quite arduous.
Last year, domestic policies to promote mergers and acquisitions in the electrolytic aluminum industry were frequent.
On July 18, 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Aluminum Industry Standard Conditions†to clearly define the entry barriers for the aluminum industry.
On October 8, 2013, the CSRC mentioned nine key industries for promoting mergers and acquisitions, such as electrolytic aluminum and rare earth industrialized leading enterprises, in the “listed company mergers and acquisitions heavy-duty systemâ€. The transaction types belong to the same industry or upstream and downstream mergers and acquisitions. Forming a backdoor listing, it will enter a fast (exempt/fast) audit channel. On October 6, 2013, the State Council issued the “Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradictions of Serious Overcapacity†and proposed related solutions.
“Electrolysis aluminum itself is a highly polluting and energy-intensive industry. In the past, extensive production and expansion models have caused huge waste and caused great pollution to the environment. M&A and restructuring have become bigger and stronger, which can increase production capacity and further enhance domestic electrolysis. The competitiveness of aluminum companies," said a non-ferrous metals industry analyst in Shenzhen.
The upper and lower ends of the electrolytic aluminum industrial chain were squeezed
Abstract There is a serious overcapacity situation in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry. Full and even chaotic competition has caused the price and production cost of electrolytic aluminum to appear upside down. The new ban pushes up the bauxite cost industry. "From the perspective of the aluminum industry chain, the upstream is bauxite, alumina,...
The former domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has serious overcapacity conditions, and full and even chaotic competition has caused the price of electrolytic aluminum and production costs to appear upside down.