The industry is worried that the western electrolytic aluminum investment will greatly increase the overcapacity risk


Behind the overall loss of the electrolytic aluminum industry, the construction boom of the western electrolytic aluminum accelerated the sprint in the contrarian trend. The "Economic Information Daily" reporter recently learned that the current Shandong Xinfa Group, Dongfang Hope Group, China Power Investment Corporation and China Aluminum Industry have all built new electrolytic aluminum projects in the western region. As of the end of last year, the planned capacity of construction in Xinjiang alone was as high as 13.05 million tons, while the current total production capacity in the country is only 26 million tons. "Last year capacity utilization rate has been less than 70%, overcapacity has been very serious, and the expansion of production capacity to the west will undoubtedly bring risks to the industry." Wang Huajun, deputy secretary general of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, accepted the "Economic Information Daily" "The interview said that the current transfer of electrolytic aluminum capacity to the west is lack of planning and management, while the capacity withdrawal mechanism in the central and eastern regions is not perfect and lacks supervision. This is likely to further aggravate the overcapacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry. The boom in investment in electrolytic aluminum in the west is “too high and too fast. The growth rate of non-ferrous fixed assets investment is already at a high level, and the investment in fixed assets in the western region has exceeded the average of the industry.” The recent China Nonferrous Metals Industry Press Release At the meeting, Vice President and Secretary-General of the Nonferrous Association, Jia Mingxing, said this when talking about the growth rate of investment in the western region. According to him, the investment in fixed assets of the non-ferrous metals industry in the 12 provinces and autonomous regions in the west increased by 42.9% over the previous year, which was 8.3 percentage points faster than the growth of fixed assets investment in the national non-ferrous metal industry, accounting for the completion of fixed assets investment by the national non-ferrous metals industry. The specific gravity is 43.1%. “The overall growth of non-ferrous metals investment last year was higher than that of national fixed-asset investment, and the investment region shifted to the west. The investment was concentrated in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, etc.” Wang Huajun told the Economic Information Daily. He also said that the investment in electrolytic aluminum is the most prominent. Wang Huajun said that in 2011, the output of electrolytic aluminum in the northwest region has surpassed that of Central China, becoming the largest production area of ​​electrolytic aluminum, with a share of 24.2%. “The new capacity of 3.9 million tons next year will be mainly concentrated in the northwest region. In the geographical distribution of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China in 2012, the northwest region accounted for 71%, and the middle China only 2.8%. The East China region with the second new capacity share is 10.3%," he said. It is worth noting that under the craze of non-ferrous investment in the west, Xinjiang's investment in electrolytic aluminum has entered the “race” stage. According to the statistics of the authoritative departments of Xinjiang, as of the end of 2011, the planned production capacity of Xinjiang Electrolytic Aluminum was 13.5 million tons, mainly concentrated in the coal-rich areas such as Zhundong, Yili and Shanshan. At present, Shandong Xinfa Group, Tianshan Aluminum, Zhonghe Aluminium, China Power Investment Corporation and other enterprises were partially put into production, and more projects are still in the infrastructure construction stage. Dongfang Hope, Shenhuo, Qiya and Tianlong Mining are expected to be completed and put into operation in December 2013. “In the past few years, private enterprises have been the majority. State-owned enterprises have also stepped up the pace of building factories in Xinjiang in the past few years.” An authoritative person told the Economic Information Daily that he admitted that in addition to the 13.55 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity shown by statistics. Actual capacity may be more than this figure. Low coal resources are undoubtedly an important reason for the electrolytic aluminum industry to enter the west. A person in charge of a large-scale electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Shihezi City, Xinjiang, said in an interview with reporters that for high-energy-consuming industries such as electrolytic aluminum, investing in Xinjiang has the advantages of rich coal resources and relatively low prices, and is far away from the mainland market and transportation costs. Increased disadvantages. In the Xinjiang Jundong Wucaiwan coal-fired coal chemical base, which is extremely rich in coal resources, a coal chemical enterprise boss told reporters that Xinjiang coal is very cheap, the price of the pit is only tens of yuan a ton, the open pit mine is cheaper, and the mainland is thousands of The coal price of one ton of yuan has formed a world of difference. This is also the biggest reason for Xinjiang to attract electrolytic aluminum enterprises. He admitted to the reporter that after the large-scale electrolytic aluminum enterprises such as Shenhuo, Qia, and Dongfang hoped to enter Zhundong, the government was equipped with abundant coal resources and built a self-sufficient power plant. At one time, electricity cost only one dollar. Even if some enterprises are powered by the national grid, the price of electricity is only three cents. In the current electrolytic aluminum process, in general, only 3 tons of alumina and other raw materials are needed, and 1 ton of electricity is consumed, and 1 ton of aluminum ingot can be processed. Xinjiang is not enriched with aluminum ore resources. At present, it is not an important market for electrolytic aluminum. However, the transportation cost to and from the mainland is up to 2,000 yuan per ton. The main cost is electricity. According to the quasi-eastern one-time electricity price of 3 gross 8 points, the production is one. Tons of electrolytic aluminum require an electricity fee of more than 5,700 yuan. According to the cost of a self-supplied power plant, the electricity cost is only 2,200 yuan. The current market price of electrolytic aluminum is 15,000 yuan per ton, and the profit is very considerable. Many times, the Jianyan Association learned that in order to curb the risk of overcapacity caused by the blind expansion of electrolytic aluminum, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other nine ministries and commissions jointly issued a document to stop all the proposed projects of electrolytic aluminum in April last year, and asked the local government to cancel the The preferential policies of the industry. Xinjiang, which was considered to be a major development center for electrolytic aluminum, was not included. However, the rapid expansion of new capacity generated by a large number of electrolytic aluminum enterprises entering Xinjiang has triggered concerns and doubts in the industry. "At present, the association has repeatedly reported this situation to the relevant departments, hoping to attract attention." Wang Huajun told the Economic Information Daily. He revealed that the current overheating of electrolytic aluminum construction in the western region has caused the industry to be vigilant. The association has also repeatedly published the "disorderly" capacity expansion of the production capacity through reports and other forms. The reporter learned from another person in the association that the association has repeatedly reflected in the meetings of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments that "the rapid expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the west will aggravate the problem of excess industry." The above-mentioned people admitted to the reporter that from the national policy level, they strictly control the investment in high-energy-consuming industries such as electrolytic aluminum, and encourage the transfer of non-ferrous industries to the west. However, the current situation is that most of the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Xinjiang is settled. The new capacity is not “transferred” after the elimination of backward production capacity. This is a “snowening” for the electrolytic aluminum industry, which has excess capacity and insufficient operating rate. It is understood that the current total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the country has reached 26 million tons, because the overcapacity has led to insufficient operating rates. The data shows that China's electrolytic aluminum production in 2011 was 17.807 million tons, and in 2010, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 16.133 million tons. According to the calculation of Qilu Securities, the domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate was 81.5% in February 2012, and the alumina capacity utilization rate was 82.1%, which was 3 percentage points lower and 6.5 percentage points lower than that in December 2011. "In the case of insufficient operating rates, such high new capacity will undoubtedly exacerbate overcapacity for the entire industry, which is very serious for the entire industry." An insider of Chinalco told the Economic Information Daily. . In his view, “new” has no corresponding “elimination”, which will not only aggravate the environmental pressure in the western region, but for the electrolytic aluminum industry, the rapid expansion of production capacity will inevitably lead to overcapacity, while prices will fall and the entire industry will lose. The dilemma will be difficult to reverse. At present, it is the traditional peak season of the electrolytic aluminum industry, but the downstream demand has not changed, coupled with factors such as overcapacity and cost increase, the whole industry of electrolytic aluminum is in a state of overall loss. The reporter learned that the average price of primary aluminum last year was around 17,000 yuan / ton. Most of the main business of electrolytic aluminum enterprises basically did not make money or the most breakeven, and the price of aluminum fell to 16,000 yuan per ton in 2012. Some companies have begun to lose money. Countermeasure should establish electrolytic aluminum capacity planning at the national level. Many industry experts interviewed by reporters have called for the establishment of an electrolytic aluminum capacity planning at the national level. On the one hand, it is reasonable to allocate the capacity of electrolytic aluminum production capacity to the west under planning. Steps, strengthen industry management, on the other hand, develop and improve the capacity exit mechanism in the central and eastern regions, and conduct effective supervision to strive to control the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum within a reasonable range. “Local governments have become the driving force behind the accelerated expansion of enterprises.” Zhang Xiaode, an economics professor at the National School of Administration, said in an interview with the Economic Information Daily that on the one hand, because of the greater cost advantage in the west, expansion has indeed brought more interest. On the other hand, the local government's pursuit of GDP growth is relatively strong. Therefore, industries such as electrolytic aluminum, which has a large contribution rate to GDP, have become the “sweet spot” for local governments to attract investment. Zhang Xiaode emphasized that although the transfer to the west is a good thing, it will also reduce the cost of enterprises. In addition, the state also encourages the transfer of electrolytic aluminum enterprises to the west. However, the reality is that the newly-built enterprises in the west are not the same enterprises as the enterprises in the eastern industry. This has caused a great repetition of production capacity. "In addition to aggravating overcapacity, it is still unknown whether the capacity of western transportation can meet the sharply increasing production capacity." Wang Huajun's concerns are not superfluous. According to the information, there is only one Lanzhou-Xinjiang railway in Xinjiang to the mainland. For controlling the total production volume, Wang Huajun pointed out that due to the lack of a perfect exit mechanism in China, the electrolytic aluminum industry has been in a state of overcapacity. Under such a background, the western region will accelerate its expansion and continue production in the central and eastern regions, which will cause further overcapacity. Therefore, when the western region is newly built, whether the central and eastern regions can withdraw in time is the key to the development of the industry. Regarding the impact of the industrial surplus on the industry, Liang Huanlei said that if the electrolytic aluminum industry, which has already had overcapacity, cannot be effectively planned and designed, while the development of the western region is increasing, the central and eastern regions have not gradually withdrawn, at least partially. It will intensify domestic competition, resulting in further lower prices and lower profits, which in turn will affect China's export prices, which is not conducive to the long-term development of the industry. Zhang Xiaode believes that controlling the total production and improving the control efficiency of non-ferrous metals are the key to the development of the industry. He suggested that under the conditions of total control, improve the industry access standards, improve the industry exit mechanism, and create a good market environment for the industry. Liu Min, a non-ferrous analyst at Huatai Securities (601688, shares), said that instead of relying on policy guidance, it is better to rely on the market. Market natural price adjustment leverage is the best way to guide the industry, and market changes will really make industry transfer a reality.

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