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Global wind power and photovoltaic industry transfer to China
Entering 2010, the energy industry is not calm. In mid-January, China abolished the policy of “localization rate of wind power equipment should exceed 70%â€, and wind power equipment entered the era of full competition; on January 22, Germany announced the reduction of solar subsidies, making the traditional solar photovoltaic market a “high priceâ€. China's vast market is thus more attractive, and the wave of global wind power equipment and photovoltaic equipment industry shifting to China is even more rampant. The international photovoltaic manufacturing industry will transfer subsidies to China's traditional PV market, and China has introduced subsidies such as “Golden Sun†in 2009, making China more and more “price sloppy†in the world PV market. Especially under the influence of the financial crisis, the transfer of the international photovoltaic manufacturing industry to China has become a general trend. China has become a “safe havenâ€. The transfer has started last year: German photovoltaic equipment manufacturer Salosum has opened two offices in China; the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturing equipment company, Applied Materials, was opened in October 2009 in Xi’an. Solar technology R&D center with a total investment of 255 million US dollars; the world's second largest solar cell manufacturer - the first solar energy company in the United States also officially entered the Chinese market, plans to build the world's largest solar power station in Ordos, Inner Mongolia in the next 10 years, project investment The amount is up to billions of dollars. The global financial crisis of 2008 was the initial motivation for the overseas PV industry to seek to move to China. China's attractive cost advantages, good scale production base and huge potential market are the root causes of its layout in the Chinese market. The data shows that China's photovoltaic power generation market has great potential. According to statistics, there are 1.2 million square kilometers of desert, desertified land and potentially desertified land in China. 100,000 kilowatts of solar photovoltaic cells can be installed per square kilometer, and 1 billion kilowatts can be installed in 1% of deserts. According to the "China Thin Film Solar Cell Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report" issued by China Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., China's installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation may increase to 2 million kilowatts by 2020, which is 12.5 times of the original plan. At the same time, China's low-cost human capital and state subsidies to the photovoltaic industry have spurred the enthusiasm of overseas PV companies to invest in China. Cutting subsidies will speed up the transfer. The industry believes that Germany and other countries have cut the subsidies for photovoltaic power generation, which has fundamentally changed the idea that foreign PV companies continue to adhere to Europe and accelerate the transfer of photovoltaic industry to China. Germany is the world's largest market for photovoltaic applications and the most important driving force for the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry in the past few years. The reduction of subsidies has naturally had a huge impact on solar photovoltaic companies. The relevant institutions estimate that after the German PV on-grid price is lowered, the average internal rate of return of the German PV market will be reduced from 12% to 7%, which will greatly affect the profitability of enterprises. Cui Rongqiang, executive director of the China Renewable Energy Society, said in an interview that the photovoltaic industry in developed countries has been moving to China, and this trend will become more apparent as Germany's subsidies reduce the cost pressure on enterprises. The reality also confirms this judgment. Shortly after Germany announced the reduction of subsidies, German solar energy company Aodesan announced that it will cooperate with China Antai Technology Co., Ltd. to set up factories in Beijing to produce solar cells and modules. Spain's energy leader Effie Group also said that it officially landed in the Chinese PV market and participated in the construction of China's Xuzhou 2000 kW photovoltaic power station. In addition, Japan's Sharp Corporation is also looking for suitable locations to build photovoltaic cell production bases. It is worth noting that China's solar photovoltaic market has not yet fully started. Even if Germany and France cut solar subsidies, China's market capacity will not be able to compete with it in the short term. The photovoltaic products produced by domestic enterprises are also mainly exported. Therefore, some experts have analyzed that at the current stage, foreign companies entering China may be to reduce the cost of photovoltaic products, and then re-export to the European and American markets; from the long-term strategic analysis, it is to lay out in advance in the Chinese market. Zhou Fengqi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said: "The cost should be a major consideration for foreign PV companies to come to China. In addition, the Chinese PV market has not yet officially started, and the advance layout is to prepare for the future." The traditional photovoltaic market cuts solar energy. Subsidizing Europe is the most important solar PV market, and now the “most important†word may have to be discounted. On January 22nd, Germany, the world's largest PV application market, suddenly announced that it would cut PV on-grid tariffs, thus following the two other important PV markets in Spain and France, becoming the third country in Europe to cut solar subsidies. The new scheme for photovoltaic feed-in tariffs was jointly announced by the German Federal Ministry of the Environment and the Nuclear Energy Safety Department. The main contents of the plan include: the roof system solar PV on-grid price has been lowered by 15% since April 2010, and the reduction is greater than 10% of the German New Energy Act; the solar PV on-grid price of the ground system and farm system will be July 2010. Decrease by 15% and 25% respectively. If the total annual installed capacity exceeds 300,000 kilowatts, the rate will be further lowered. The plan also stipulates that the PV on-grid price will be dynamically adjusted according to the annual installed capacity. From 2011 onwards, if the newly installed capacity exceeds 350,000 kilowatts, the PV on-grid tariff will be lowered by 2.5%; if the installed capacity exceeds 450,000 kilowatts, it will be further reduced by 5%; but if the installed capacity is less than 250,000 kilowatts, The PV on-grid price will cover 2.5%. According to this scheme, the largest sub-category of the German roof system – the on-grid price of the roof system of less than 30 kW will be reduced from 0.43 euros per kWh to 0.365 euros. The solar photovoltaic market is highly dependent on government subsidies. After the government cut subsidies, some foreign PV manufacturers will be unable to bear high costs, leading to the “crowding out effect†of production capacity. The emerging PV market will become the target of capacity transfer of these enterprises. Challenges and Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises Whether foreign companies are trying to reduce costs or aim to lay out ahead of time, they pose challenges for Chinese PV companies. In the face of the global wave of photovoltaic industry transfer, what should Chinese companies do? There is no doubt that competition among enterprises will intensify. Chinese PV companies rely on the advantages of low labor and energy costs to stabilize in the international market, and European and American competitors have seen this. Transferring factories to China has become a new way for many European and American PV producers to fight against Chinese manufacturers. This means that domestic enterprises can no longer rely on the advantages of traditional labor to compete with foreign companies. On the other hand, shifting the trend will also bring some of the world's most advanced photovoltaic technologies. For example, Spain's Effie Group rushed to the domestic photovoltaic power station, which will bring its world's most advanced solar tracking technology, the biaxial daily tracking technology, to the domestic market, which will double the total solar energy reception. How domestic companies compete with foreign companies in technology is expected. Everything, as Cui Rongqiang, executive director of the China Renewable Energy Society, said, “The photovoltaic enterprises that can survive in the future must be the enterprises with the best product quality and the most cost-effective.†China already has its own leading enterprises and leading products. The short-term competition will not lead to the shrinking of the domestic PV industry, but will prompt Chinese leading enterprises to mature more quickly.