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According to SEMIChina, the global photovoltaic (PV) market is expected to face a significant oversupply in 2013, with an estimated surplus of 20%. This forecast comes as the industry continues to experience intense competition and consolidation, especially in China, which remains the world's largest PV supply chain hub.
SEMIChina reported that the growth rate of global PV module production capacity will decline by 13% in 2013. While shipments are projected to rise from 39 GW to 43 GW, this represents a 10.25% increase compared to the previous year. However, the surge in production outpaces demand, leading to an oversupply situation. As a result, the average price of PV modules is expected to keep falling throughout the year, putting pressure on manufacturers' profit margins.
In addition, China's domestic PV market saw a sharp decline in polysilicon module output, reaching approximately 34 GW in 2013—a year-on-year drop of 24.44%. The output of PV modules also decreased by 8%, totaling around 23 GW. These figures highlight the challenges faced by Chinese manufacturers amid slowing demand and overcapacity.
Furthermore, SEMIPV Group released its third-quarter global PV market data, showing an order-to-ship ratio of 0.38. This means that for every $100 worth of products shipped, suppliers only received $38 in orders, indicating weak demand and tight pricing power in the market.
Overall, 2013 looks set to be a tough year for the global PV industry, with oversupply, declining prices, and shrinking margins shaping the landscape. Companies will need to adapt quickly to remain competitive in this evolving environment.