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1, aluminum
The Shanghai Aluminum 1012 contract opened at 15,400 yuan / ton today, and the morning was basically in a narrow range around 15400. Near the midday close, the stock index led to the 15460, accompanied by the decline of the stock index in the afternoon, Shanghai aluminum also appeared diving, the lowest to 15320. The lack of confidence in the bears, and the late end of the air, and quickly pulled up. Shanghai Aluminum Yangtze River spot transaction price is 15060-15100 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan, discount 60 to discount 20; SMM aluminum ingot price transaction price is 15075 yuan / ton, down 45 yuan; South Reserve spot price is 15100 yuan / Tons, down 30 yuan. The price of Chinalco alumina rose to 2,750 yuan / ton, the price of non-Chinese alumina rose to 2,750 yuan / ton, and the price of imported alumina remained at 2,750 yuan / ton. On the macro level, the Ministry of Land and Resources has recently disclosed an expanded list of unused real estate land and severely demanded an accelerated clean-up; the Ministry of Finance is currently clearing the issue of local financing platforms, which has greatly suppressed the large-cap stocks. Expectations for real estate regulation still exist, which makes the expectation of slowing down the economic growth rate, which in turn affects the demand for metals, thus dragging down metal prices. However, the cost factor will make the price of aluminum fall limited. At present, the price is basically close to the cost price, and there is little room for deep decline. At present, there are some changes in the funds, the shibor interest rate is gradually rising, the central bank issued an announcement, tomorrow's 17 billion March issue of its central bank bill and 80 billion yuan of central bank bills, making this week a net return of 61 billion, short-term funds have tightened The trend, therefore does not rule out the possibility of continuing to fall.
2, steel
Today, SHFE rebar 1101 contract opened at 4219 points, closed at 4225 points, the highest 4245 points, the lowest 4212 points, the price fell 13 points, a drop of 0.31%, the settlement price of 4228; the volume decreased by 395,000 hands to 1.604 million hands, positions Increased 5,654 hands to 1.137 million hands; trading range is concentrated in 4222, 4231-4234.
The day before yesterday, we also said that from the broader market trend, the price may fall below the support line below. Yesterday, the price closed below the support line. Today, it fell sharply to close around 2600, but the trading volume has shrunk. Therefore, it can be seen as a passive decline, mainly due to the poor external economic environment and the high pressure of domestic real estate policies.
However, observing the trend of the market and rebar in recent period, we can find that the trend of the two is relatively close, but when the market rises, the market leads the rebar, but when it falls, the rebar leads the market. The relationship and entanglement will continue to be tracked.
From today's disk, in the case of a sharp drop in the stock index and the broader market, the rebar has shown a relatively strong resistance. Today, the lowest is around 4215. This is basically a 50% retracement line. It can be considered that the 4200-4215 range is relatively strong. Support, if the price falls below this range, you can look at 4185 and 4175, or even 4155.
Overall, the commodity's resistance today is due to the fact that it has been ahead of the broader market in the past few days, rather than following the broader market, so it is not considered that the commodity has signs of stabilization.
The advice given today is: it is not as quiet as it is, the existing empty orders can be held, no need to add, waiting for the guidance of the new policy.
Mid-term research institute: some commodities are now showing signs of stabilization
Metal plate