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The petrochemical industry in China has shown encouraging signs of resilience throughout the third quarter of this year. Despite global economic slowdowns and domestic challenges, the sector managed to maintain a steady trajectory with improved economic performance compared to normal levels. Analysts anticipate that the downward pressure on the industry's economic performance will ease in the fourth quarter, potentially stabilizing key economic indicators.
Since the start of the year, major economies worldwide have experienced slower growth rates, impacting China's macroeconomic conditions. This led to a temporary dip in the petrochemical sector earlier in the year. However, following the implementation of various measures by Chinese authorities to stimulate growth, the industry began to recover. By September, positive trends emerged, with the cumulative industrial output reaching 7901.4 billion yuan from January to September, representing an 11.3% increase over the same period last year. Notably, September alone saw output value rise to 951.0 billion yuan, marking a 12.3% year-over-year growth.
Recently, despite the sector's overall sluggishness, investments and new projects have gained momentum. From January to September, the actual fixed asset investment in the petrochemical industry reached 107.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.9%. During this period, 14,441 construction projects were initiated, a 6.6% increase compared to the previous year. Among these, 9,479 were new projects, rising by 11.5% year-on-year. High-end manufacturing segments, such as synthetic materials and specialized equipment, saw significant growth, increasing by 59.5% and 61.1% respectively, showcasing the industry's proactive approach toward structural reforms amid declining profitability.
In terms of international trade, the petrochemical industry recorded a total foreign trade value of $295.9 billion from January to September, a slight 0.4% decrease year-on-year. Imports amounted to $199.4 billion, while exports reached $126.5 billion, maintaining a trade deficit of approximately $42.9 billion. Since May, the industry has seen a reversal of its previous downward trend in trade figures, with imports and exports stabilizing and recovering to levels comparable to those of the prior year. In September, imports grew by 2.6% year-on-year, and exports rebounded to a 4.1% growth rate.
As national macroeconomic policies continue to take effect, the petrochemical industry is poised for a gradual improvement in the final quarter of the year. Forecasts suggest that the industry’s output value for the fourth quarter will reach approximately 3.33 trillion yuan, growing by 12.7% year-on-year and expanding by 10% sequentially. October’s projected output stands at around 1.06 trillion yuan, remaining stable or marginally lower than the previous month. For the full year, the total output value is anticipated to reach approximately 12.25 trillion yuan, with a 11.5% increase. Profits are expected to reach around 735 billion yuan, showing a decline of roughly 11%. The primary business revenue is forecasted to reach 12 trillion yuan, increasing by about 10%. Total imports and exports are predicted to reach $655 billion, growing by 8%, while investment is set to reach 1.86 trillion yuan, marking a 30% rise. Additionally, the annual crude oil production is expected to reach 205 million tons, growing by 1%, and natural gas production is projected to reach 110 billion cubic meters, increasing by 7%. Major chemical outputs are anticipated to grow by 8.6%, totaling approximately 450 million tons.