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Coal market performance polarization in December
In December, the international thermal coal market experienced a "N"-shaped fluctuation, driven by extreme cold weather in Central and Eastern Europe and rising demand in Asia. Overall, the market performed well in the short term, but long-term concerns about global economic slowdowns and weakening demand growth remain. Meanwhile, the coking coal market saw some consolidation as Japan and Australia’s long-term price of $165 per ton for Q1 2013 dampened market confidence. However, with recovery in the Asian steel sector, the international coking coal market is expected to stabilize, though significant price increases are unlikely.
Domestically, the thermal coal market remained weak and volatile. Port prices fell slightly due to lower demand and increased supply. Cold weather may have reduced production, but overall market stability is expected. On the other hand, the coking coal market was more stable, with some regional price increases due to higher downstream demand. With government policies controlling scarce coal types and strong demand from steel producers, the coking coal market is expected to see a positive start in 2014.
In terms of coal shipping, import volumes continued to rise, but transaction activity remained low. Coastal coal freight rates were affected by lower demand and high inventory levels, resulting in a generally weak market performance. At year-end, power plants increased procurement efforts, leading to slight improvements in the month’s overall performance. However, freight rates are expected to remain low in the near future.
Looking at the international thermal coal market, prices rose in key ports like Newcastle and Richards due to increased demand from Asia. However, European ARA prices declined due to falling oil and gas prices, which squeezed coal demand. The U.S. also contributed to oversupply in the European market, further pressuring prices. Despite short-term demand boosts from colder weather and holiday seasons, long-term outlook remains uncertain due to global economic challenges.
For coking coal, the negotiated price between Japan and Australia of $165 per ton for Q1 2013 created uncertainty. Although some regions saw price rebounds due to improved demand, the long-term outlook remains cautious. Steel demand in Asia is expected to support coking coal prices, while China's policies on coal control could influence global pricing dynamics.
On the domestic front, thermal coal prices in port areas faced downward pressure due to heavy snowfall and weak demand. Coal production in northern regions was limited, but prices remained relatively stable. In contrast, the coking coal market showed signs of improvement, with some regions reporting price increases. Strong downstream demand from steel mills supported this trend, and with policy support, coking coal prices are expected to rise gradually.
Coastal coal freight rates initially fluctuated but eventually stabilized. While some routes saw slight increases, others experienced declines due to weak demand and high inventories. Looking ahead, the coastal coal transport market is expected to remain under pressure, with freight rates likely to stay low in the coming months.
Overall, the coal market in December showed mixed performance, with some segments showing resilience and others facing headwinds. As the new year approaches, market participants will be closely watching for signs of sustained recovery and policy developments that could shape the industry’s direction.