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China’s fixed asset investment will exceed 45 trillion yuan this year.
Abstract The rebound in export growth is closely linked to the country's "stable export" policy implemented since the first half of 2012. However, another contributing factor was the early purchasing behavior of Western consumers ahead of Christmas and New Year. As these seasonal factors faded, the year-on-year growth rate of China’s exports dropped to 2.9% in November 2012. This suggests that while the policy had a short-term positive impact, external demand fluctuations played a significant role in shaping the export performance during this period.
The effectiveness of such policies is difficult to predict and is generally expected to last only through the first half of 2013. Once the policy effects wane, the issue of overcapacity is likely to resurface. Currently, overcapacity has expanded beyond traditional sectors like steel, aluminum, cement, and automobiles into industries such as coke, calcium carbide, ferroalloys, copper smelting, textiles, and chemical fibers. Even in emerging fields like carbon fiber, wind power, polysilicon, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, overcapacity has become a growing concern.
This overcapacity has led to intense low-level competition and price wars, which have significantly reduced corporate profits. From January to August 2012, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises fell by 12.7% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the problem of corporate debt—often referred to as the "triangle debt"—has worsened, with some companies facing deteriorating financial conditions.
If the export situation and overcapacity issues worsen again, the government may continue its strategy of steady growth in 2013, aiming to stimulate investment and boost economic expansion. According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, total fixed asset investment in 2012 reached 37.514 trillion yuan, up 20.4% year-on-year, and increased further to 44.988 trillion yuan in 2013, representing a 19.9% rise. While market forecasts suggest relatively low growth rates for both years, the China Investment Association predicts that 2012's growth will reach 21%, and 2013's will hit 24%, surpassing 45 trillion yuan in total investment. These figures highlight the continued reliance on infrastructure and investment to sustain economic momentum.