Compared with Shanghai Copper, Shanghai zinc recent sharp fluctuations, Shanghai aluminum apparently calm and stable, the main reason is that Shanghai aluminum early gains are relatively small, making the fluctuations in the space is relatively narrow; second is the current aluminum price is larger Rigidity and falling space were basically sealed off, and therefore it was clearly resilience during the sharp correction of copper and zinc. On the whole, Shanghai Aluminum has great stability between 16,000 and 17,000 yuan/t. In this interval, it is also a "valuable depression" for Shanghai Aluminum. It buys at the lower edge of its range and has strong investment value. .

The global supply and demand situation of aluminum is affected by the domestic targets for energy-saving emission reduction. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production has been declining since June of this year. The recent data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) stated that China’s daily average aluminum output in September this year is 43600 tons. Average daily average is 44800t in August. The output of primary aluminum in September was 1.309 million tons, which was lower than 1.388 million tons in August. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of electrolytic aluminum in September fell to 1.172 million tons, a decrease of 107,000 tons from the previous month. From the output data in recent months, some companies have reduced production, and this situation may continue until next year. From this point of view, the problem of oversupply that has been plaguing the country for a long time or a certain degree of easing in the year will have significant support for aluminum prices.

According to the latest data from the United States, the output of primary aluminum in the United States in August was 145,000 t, a decrease of 0.7% from the previous month. According to data released by the Japan Aluminum Association, shipments of aluminum products increased 8.5% year-on-year in September and 8.5% month-on-month. The Japan Aluminum Association also stated that shipments of aluminum products in Japan from April to September increased by 14.8% from the same period last year. . Western countries’ unforged aluminum stocks fell to 1,292,000 t in September. According to the data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI), at the end of September, aluminum inventories of smelters excluding finished aluminum fell to 2.376 million tons. In general, the supply and demand situation of electrolytic aluminum in the global market is now relatively good.

The rise in cost and the impact of energy saving and emission reduction in China The price of aluminum is apt to rise. Since the second half of the year, due to rising costs and the national energy-saving emission reduction targets, China’s electrolytic aluminum output has continuously declined, from the production data in recent months. Look, some companies have seen a certain degree of production cuts. In the context of increasing energy conservation and emission reduction and eliminating outdated production capacity in China, the market has considerable expectations for the slowdown in the pace of expansion of aluminum production capacity and the fall in staged production. At present, Shanghai Aluminum prices are at a relatively low level, and there is almost no room for downward prices. , Shanghai Aluminum prices that are in “value-depressed land” may gradually gain investors’ favor.

The analysis and forecast report of the national electricity supply and demand and economic operation situation in the first three quarters of 2010 released by the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation shows that all the thermal power companies in the country have suffered losses; the power generation companies face risk of capital chain breakage due to losses; As the heating period in the north is approaching the winter of coal storage in the power plant, some power plants have no money to buy coal, which may result in the risk of not being able to guarantee the supply of electricity and heat, and the certainty of the future electricity price or price increase. As electricity price is one of the main costs of electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic aluminum may need to pay higher costs due to the pressure of rising electricity prices, which also makes the price of electrolytic aluminum in the future have more rigid factors.

The State Reserve Selling has little effect on aluminum prices. Recently, the State Reserve Materials Regulatory Center of China has been entrusted by the State Bureau of Materials Reserves to sell partial aluminum ingots in an open auction with a quantity of 96,000 tons. Because of the small number of aluminium ingots sold this time, the greater significance of the State Reserve’s dumping of this time is to deliver to the market an expectation of stabilizing inflation, and the impact on the market is expected to be relatively limited.

As the intensity of domestic energy-saving and emission reduction efforts has increased, the electrolytic aluminum industry of high energy-consuming large consumers has been greatly affected. The market expects that the production capacity of the aluminum-producing province of Henan Province will exceed 1 million t/year in this round of production cuts, and this year the electrolytic aluminum companies will be subject to production restriction during the rest of the year. At the same time, aluminum stocks in the domestic spot market also fell substantially following the decline in electrolytic aluminum production. It can be seen from this that the situation of domestic aluminum supply surplus has been alleviated in the short term. It is expected that there will be a rare situation in which electrolytic aluminum will be reduced in supply and growth in consumption in the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of next year, which will support aluminum prices. On the whole, the throwing of aluminum by the State Reserve will not have much impact on the entire aluminum industry. It will help ease the tight supply of aluminum in the short term. However, in the current situation that the Shanghai Aluminum prices have been falling, the news of dumping the reserve will appear. The short-term correction of aluminum prices may be the best entry point for investors to buy.

Expectations of Inflation Keep Commodity Prices High In view of the recent US economic performance, there is little suspense about the monetary policy of restarting quantitative easing policies. Although there is a possibility that the short-term dollar will bottom out, it is obviously unrealistic to change the weakness of the US dollar. The US Federal Reserve Bureau is about to start a new round of quantitative easing policies, and the US dollar will continue to remain weak. The rising exchange rate of China's emerging economies, such as China's emerging economies, will not stop. The global quantitative easing monetary policy may become even more intense. The abundance of global liquidity makes inflation expectations more and more a reality. According to the recent economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China's economy may not reach the bottom again, but the risk of inflation is getting closer and closer. Recently, the People's Bank of China unexpectedly announced the first increase in interest rates in the past three years, reflecting the imminent domestic inflation from another side. The inflation of China and the world has increased the internal motivation for the rise of commodities, and this kind of power has a certain degree of persistence.

China's demand is expected or is strengthening China as a large consumer of electrolytic aluminum. The strength of its demand will directly determine the trend of aluminum prices. According to the latest two China Manufacturing Indexes, the acceleration of growth in China's manufacturing activity in October has caused domestic inflationary pressures to rise. According to data released jointly by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 54.7 in October, higher than the 53.8 in September. In addition, HSBC Holdings Ltd. announced its October manufacturing by HSBC China. The purchasing managers' index rose from 52.9 to 54.8, which is one of the largest increases since the data was released in 2004. The fact that the domestic PMI continues to stay above 50 indicates that China's manufacturing activities have expanded significantly and demand for commodities will remain high. From the published PMI data, although the new export orders fell slightly from 52.8 in September to 52.6 in October, the output index, new order index and purchase volume index all increased, indicating that the domestic demand trend is increasing. The data increases expectations for future demand for commodities such as aluminum.

On the whole, Shanghai Aluminum's price is still at a relatively low level and it is in a situation that is easy to rise and fall. Under the influence of rising costs and domestic energy-saving and emission-reduction and other production capacity adjustments, the aluminum price will obviously have room to increase in the future. If China’s demand in the fourth quarter can maintain a certain degree of sustained growth, the space for aluminum prices will grow. Further opening, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract 1102 at 17,000 yuan / t or more stabilizing the price should be a strong hint, it is strongly concerned that the Shanghai aluminum at 17,000 yuan / t above the performance.