The automobile industry, as the "engine" of the national economy of various countries, is one of the important economic pillars supporting the countries of the world. After more than a decade of rapid growth, China's annual production of automobiles has increased from 5.76 million in 2005 to 28.02 million in 2016. The annual sales volume of automobiles has reached 386% during this period. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales in 2017 were 29.015 million and 28.879 million, respectively, up 3.2% and 3% year-on-year.

In the first half of 2018, China's automobile production and sales reached 14.057 million and 1,406,600, an increase of 4.15% and 5.57% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, automobile production and sales continued to grow steadily. Among them, passenger car production and sales of 11.835 million and 11.775 million, an increase of 3.23% and 4.64%, the growth rate has increased; commercial vehicle production and sales of 2,240,400 and 2,291,100, an increase of 9.41% and 10.58%, growth rate It has fallen back. How to look at the development of the automotive industry in 2018? Are there any highlights that are impressive? Will the leading of the new energy auto industry continue in 2019? What challenges will China's auto industry face in 2019? In response to these problems, China Economic Times reporter interviewed Zhou Yi, assistant researcher of the Industrial Economics Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council.

The automotive industry data is not optimistic in 2018

China Economic Times: 2018 is about to pass, how do you view the development of the automotive industry in 2018?

Zhou Yi: From the perspective of production and sales, the auto industry in 2018 can be described as a cold winter. However, there is no need to be too scared. According to historical data, after China’s accession to the WTO, car sales experienced three sharp declines in 2003-2005, 2009-2011 and 2013-2015, each lasting about Two years, four years apart, showing more regular cyclical fluctuations. From the international experience, China's car ownership per thousand people is more than 140, not as much as one-fifth of the United States, far from the level of developed countries, and there is still much room for the development of the automobile industry.

      The rapid development of the new energy automobile industry is a bright spot

China Economic Times: Looking at the entire 2018, are there any highlights in the automotive industry that impress you?

Zhou Yi: After leaving the sales and sales data of the car, there are still some places to be noted. The concentration of independent brands of automobiles has been continuously improved. New technologies and new modes such as intelligent network connection, shared travel, automatic driving technology and automobile service industry have flourished. The new energy automobile industry has developed rapidly, and the vehicle manufacturing and auto parts industries have been in the Belt and Road. Under the framework, large-scale development of overseas markets reflects the high-quality development characteristics of the automotive industry.

New energy vehicles should not be overestimated

China Economic Times: There is a view that the leading of the new energy automobile industry will continue in 2019, and there is the possibility of acceleration. How do you think about this?

Zhou Yi: From the perspective of growth rate of production and sales, the new energy auto industry will indeed lead the industry development in 2019. Considering that the marginal stimulus effect of new energy vehicle subsidies is declining, for example, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in November increased by 36.9% and 37.6% compared with the same period of last year, but lower than the 58.1% and 51% in October, which was lower than the growth rate of 64.4 in September. % and 54.8%, while technological advances and cost reductions are not achieved overnight, and it is not expected to accelerate the lead in 2019.

On the other hand, the production and sales of new energy vehicles account for less than 4% of the total production and sales of automobiles. This kind of lead has little meaning for the entire automobile industry. It has little reference to the new energy vehicles themselves, and should still do their own thing.

Should continue to deepen reform

China Economic Times: What challenges do you think China's auto industry will face in 2019? In order to continue the healthy and stable development of the automobile industry in 2019, what suggestions do you have?

Zhou Yi: In the short term, the development of the automotive industry mainly depends on the cyclical laws of the auto industry itself, macroeconomic trends, short-term stimulus policies, and car sales promotion.

According to the previous several growth rate correction laws of China's auto industry, the callback will last for about two years. In 2019, it will still be in a downward channel. If the macro economy continues this year's trend and there is no obvious tax concession, the situation should not be overly optimistic.

In order to promote the stable and healthy development of the automobile industry, I believe that on the one hand, the government must deepen the reform of “distribution service” to provide a good development environment for car companies. On the other hand, enterprises should reduce costs and improve service levels to bring quality to consumers. Good products at a low price.

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